基于层次分析法和风险矩阵法的城镇供水管道安全风险评估  

Safety Risks Assessment of Urban Water Supply Pipelines Based on AHP and Risk Matrix Methods

作　　者：李兰娟 孟珊 LI Lanjuan;MENG Shan(Security Support Center for Urban Water Suppply of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210036,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省城镇供水安全保障中心,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《净水技术》2025年第3期52-59,共8页Water Purification Technology

摘　　要：【目的】为了推动城市生命线安全风险防控智慧化,我国提出了推进城市燃气、桥梁、隧道、供水、排水等城市基础设施生命线安全工程的工作要求,采用信息化和智能化技术对城市基础设施运行状况进行实时监测、动态预警、精准溯源、协同处置。风险评估是城市生命线安全工程的重要内容之一。【方法】基于供水行业特点和风险管理理论,建立了城镇供水管道安全风险评估体系。评估体系包含可能性指标和后果性指标两类,同时考虑安全管理水平作为可能性修正指标。指标体系共分为三级,其中可能性一级指标2个、二级指标4个、三级指标15个。采用层次分析法(AHP)计算各评估指标权重。通过风险矩阵法,综合考虑可能性等级和后果性等级、后续管控措施的分级设置等判定风险等级,风险等级共划分为四级。【结果】开展了评估指标体系的实际案例应用,首先基于服役年限、管材等因素开展管道初筛,然后开展指标权重确定、评估单元划分、风险分析等。评估结果表明,导致较大以上风险的主要方面是可能性指标,具体为管材老旧、压力变化幅度大、漏损量大、管道间距不足等因素。【结论】评估结果可为供水企业和相关行业主管部门的日常运行管理、行业监管和后续计划安排提供依据和参考。[Objective]In order to promote the intelligentization of urban lifeline safety risk prevention and control,China has put forward the requirements for promoting the safety project of urban gas,bridges,tunnels,water supply,drainage and other urban infrastructure lifelines,and adopt information technology and intelligent technology carry out real-time monitoring,dynamic early warning,precise traceability and collaborative disposal of the operation status of urban infrastructure.Risk assessment is one of the important contents of lifeline safety project.[Methods]Based on the characteristics of the water supply industry and risk management theory,the safety risk assessment system for urban water supply pipelines was established.The evaluation system includes two types of indices:possibility indices and consequence indices,and the safety management level was considered as the possibility modification index.The index system was into three levels,including 2 primary indices of possibility,4 secondary indices,and 15 tertiary indices.The weights of each evaluation index are calculated by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The risk level was determined by using the risk matrix method,which comprehensively considered the possibility level and the consequence level,and the risk level divided into four levels.[Results]The practical application of the evaluation index system was carried out.Firstly,the pipeline was screened based on the service life and pipe,and then the determination of index weight,the division of evaluation unit and risk analysis were carried out.The result of the evaluation showed that the main aspects leading greater risk are the possibility indices,specifically the old pipe material,large pressure change amplitude,large leakage,insufficient pipeline spacing and other factors.[Conclusion]The evaluation can provide basis and reference for the daily operation and management of water supply enterprises and relevant industry authorities,industry supervision and follow-up planning.

关 键 词：供水爆管 风险管理 风险评估 层次分析法(AHP) 风险矩阵 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]