基于AHP的深圳市水源地与供水系统运营管理风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Operation and Management for Water Sources and Water Supply System in Shenzhen City Based on AHP

作　　者：龙颖 宋兰 郑春苗 LONG Ying;SONG Lan;ZHENG Chunmiao(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China;Shenzhen Institute of Sustainable Development,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,广东深圳518055 [2]南方科技大学深圳可持续发展研究院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《净水技术》2025年第3期60-69,共10页Water Purification Technology

基　　金：深圳市可持续发展专项(专2021N039)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究旨在通过层次分析法(AHP)对深圳市水源地及供水系统的运营管理风险进行系统性评估,识别主要风险因素,并提出相应的风险预防与应对措施,以保障城市供水安全。【方法】研究结合专家经验数据,采用AHP对深圳市水源地风险、水厂工艺风险、设备管理风险、人员管理风险和环境灾害风险进行定性和定量分析,构建风险评价层次结构模型,并通过一致性检验确保评估结果的可靠性。【结果】结果表明,深圳市水源地风险权重为0.279,是影响供水安全的主要因素。水源地水体污染(0.117)、水源供应能力不足(0.081)、单渠道供水风险(0.081)、设备老化或故障(0.055)以及台风(0.053)对供水系统的影响较大。环境灾害风险如火灾(0.033)和地震(0.022)的影响相对较小。【结论】研究提出了针对水源地、设备管理、人员管理等方面的风险控制对策,建议通过建立应急水源、完善水质监测体系、加强设备维护、优化人员管理等措施,提升深圳市供水系统的抗风险能力。研究为深圳市供水系统的风险评估与应急管理提供了理论依据和实践指导。[Objective]This study aims to systematically assess the operational and management risks of water sources and water supply systems in Shenzhen City using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),identify key risk factors,and propose corresponding risk prevention and response measures to ensure urban water supply safety.[Methods]Combining expert empirical data,the study employed the AHP to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze risks related to water sources,water treatment plant processes,equipment management,personnel management,and environmental disasters.A hierarchical risk assessment model was constructed,and consistency checks were conducted to ensure the reliability of the assessment result.[Results]The findings indicated that the risk weight of water sources in Shenzhen City is 0.279,making it the primary factor affecting water supply safety.Water pollution at water sources(0.117),insufficient water supply capacity(0.081),single-channel water supply risk(0.081),equipment aging or failure(0.055),and typhoons(0.053)had significant impacts on the water supply system.Environmental disaster risks such as fires(0.033)and earthquakes(0.022)had relatively minor impacts.[Conclusion]The study proposes risk control measures targeting water sources,equipment management,and personnel management.Recommendations include establishing emergency water sources,improving water quality monitoring systems,enhancing equipment maintenance,and optimizing personnel management to strengthen the resilience of Shenzhen′s water supply system.This research provides a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for risk assessment and emergency management of Shenzhen′s water supply system.

关 键 词：层次分析法(AHP) 水源地与供水系统 供水安全 风险评估 应急管理 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]