2023年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2023

作　　者：聂高臻 许映龙 王海平 NIE Gaozhen;XU Yinglong;WANG Haiping(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2025年第3期369-381,共13页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3107902);风云卫星应用先行计划(FY-APP-ZX-2023.01)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用1949—2023年中国气象局台风最佳路径资料、2023年中央气象台台风路径和强度实时业务资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5逐6 h再分析资料等,对2023年西北太平洋和南海台风活动的主要特征进行分析。结果表明:2023年的台风生成频数和登陆频数均偏少,台风极值强度和登陆强度均偏强,台风生成源地偏东,南海台风偏少,夏季台风登陆数偏少,台风登陆地段集中,台风深入内陆,影响范围广,灾害影响重。2023年中央气象台24 h台风路径预报平均误差创历史新低;1~4 d内中央气象台路径预报误差高于日本气象厅和美国联合台风预警中心;1~5 d时效的台风强度预报误差有所增加,预报优于日本气象厅,差于美国联合台风预警中心。台风杜苏芮和海葵分别给华北和华南带来了大范围极端降水,台风残涡的长时间维持、良好的水汽供应均有可能是形成极端降水的重要原因。对台风卡努的分析表明,热带大尺度天气系统的演变、双台风效应都能造成台风路径的转折。Using the best track data of China Meteorological Administration(CMA)from 1949 to 2023,real-time operational forecast data of typhoon track and intensity in 2023 from National Meteorological Centre(NMC)of CMA,and the ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),we analyze the main characteristics of typhoon activities in the Western North Pacific in 2023.The results show that in 2023,the numbers of generated typhoons and the landfall typhoons were both at a relatively low level,but the extreme intensity of typhoons and landfall intensities were stronger.The generation source areas of typhoons shifted eastward,with fewer typhoons born in the South China Sea and fewer typhoons making landfall in summer.The landfall localities of typhoons were more concentrated,and the landfall typhoons travelled further inland,causing widespread and severe damages.Although the 24 h typhoon track forecast errors by NMC in 2023 reached a historic low point,the track forecast errors within 1-4 d were higher than those of the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA)and the U.S.Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC).The intensity forecast errors for typhoons within 1-5 d lead time increased compared to last five years’levels,but still better than JMA and worse than JTWC.The large challenges in typhoon forecasting in 2023 lay in the inland penetration and prolonged duration of Typhoon Doksuri which brought extreme precipitation in North China,and the remnant vortex of Typhoon Haikui triggering extreme precipitation in South China.Analysis of Typhoon Khanun indicates that,the evolution of large-scale tropical weather systems and the dual-typhoon effect may lead to the two sharp turns of the typhoon’s track.

关 键 词：台风 活动特征 预报难点 残涡 路径转折 极端降水 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]