雨雪天气下民航机场运输能力的韧性评价  

Resilience evaluation of civil aviation airport transportation capacity under rain and snow weather

作　　者：齐麟[1] 戴克娟 QI Lin;DAI Kejuan(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第3期835-842,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2600500)。

摘　　要：为了衡量机场遭遇雨雪灾害时抵抗、吸收扰动并从中断中恢复的能力,以雨雪天气下机场航班运行情况表征其功能水平,分别用脆弱性、鲁棒性与恢复性指数定量分析机场在功能下降、保持低水平运行、功能恢复三个阶段的韧性表现,并提出考虑受灾全过程机场功能剩余累积比的韧性评价方法,对在2019年中国气象局根据事件影响范围、代表性等原则遴选的十大天气气候事件中遭遇大雨、暴雪袭击的78个运输机场进行韧性评价,分析各个机场脆弱性、鲁棒性和恢复性指数的分布规律并对同一机场在雨雪天气下的韧性指数进行对比分析。结果表明:不同机场在受灾过程中的韧性表现存在显著差异;不同韧性水平机场的脆弱性、鲁棒性和恢复性指数均随着韧性指数的升高而升高且脆弱性与恢复性指数以基本相同的比例升高;雨雪灾害下提高机场应急能力和功能冗余性是提升其韧性的重要途径;同一机场在大雨、暴雪两种灾害下的韧性指数较为接近,这表明在气象灾害对机场影响机制相似的情况下,机场的韧性表现是一致的。This paper evaluates airports'ability to withstand,absorb disturbances,and recover from interruptions during rain and snow disasters.It characterizes airport functionality based on flight operation status in adverse weather conditions and employs three key metrics-vulnerability,robustness,and recovery-to quantitatively analyze resilience performance across three stages:functional decline,maintenance of low-level operations,and functional recovery.Building on this foundation,this study proposes a resilience evaluation method that incorporates the residual accumulation ratio of airport functions throughout the entire disaster process.This method is used to assess the resilience of 78 transport airports affected by heavy rain and snow during the top ten weather and climate events identified by the China Meteorological Administration in 2019,based on the principles of event impact scope and representativeness.Additionally,this study analyzed the distribution patterns of three resilience characteristic indices-vulnerability,robustness,and recovery-across various airports.It explored their quantitative relationships with one another and with the overall resilience index.Furthermore,the study compared and analyzed the resilience indices of the same airport under both rain and snow conditions.The results indicate that the residual accumulation ratio of airport functions is a more effective measure of airport resilience during rain and snow disasters.There are significant differences in resilience levels among different airports,with the three resilience characteristic indices-vulnerability,robustness,and recovery-increasing alongside the overall resilience index.Furthermore,the vulnerability index and recovery index of airports increase at a roughly similar rate.The recovery index and robustness index are particularly effective in reflecting airport resilience during heavy rain and blizzard conditions.Therefore,enhancing emergency response capabilities and functional redundancy is a critical approach to improving airport

关 键 词：安全工程 机场 韧性评价 雨雪天气 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]