新兴经济体资本管制的经济周期同步性外溢效应研究  

Research on the Spillover Effects of Business Cycle Synchronization of Capital Controls in Emerging Economies

作　　者：苟琴[1] 李兴申 谭小芬 张石昌 Gou Qin;Li Xingshen;Tan Xiaofen;Zhang Shichang(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [3]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2025年第2期27-37,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球金融网络视角下跨境资本流动管理与金融风险防范”(72073150);国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球金融周期对跨境银行资本流动网络的影响、作用机制与审慎监管研究”(72403174)资助;国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(20&ZD101)。

摘　　要：本文首次研究新兴经济体实施资本管制产生的经济周期同步性多边外溢效应及作用机制。基于18个新兴经济体的季度跨国面板数据,本文实证发现,其他新兴经济体加强资本管制会显著提升本国与美国之间的经济周期同步性。这一外溢影响主要由资本流入管制,尤其是对跨境证券投资等“热钱”流入管制所驱动。进一步研究发现,其他新兴经济体实施资本流入管制会显著扩大美国流向本国的证券资本规模,增强双边金融联系,进而加强本国和美国之间资本积累的同步性。区别于对“热钱”类资本的管制,其他新兴经济体加强对外国直接投资的管制将有助于增强本国经济周期独立性。面对他国资本流入管制的加强,工业化水平更低、与美国双边贸易联系更紧密的经济体受到的影响更大。本文的研究结果加深了对新兴经济体资本管制多边外溢影响的认识。In the context of emerging economies,a crucial question arises:when a country tightens its capital controls,does it lead to the redirection of capital flows toward other countries?Moreover,will it affect the synchronization of economic cycles between these other countries and the US?This paper undertakes an empirical exploration for the very first time,delving into the spillover consequences that the implementation of capital controls by emerging economies has on the macroeconomic fluctuations of their counterparts.It further examines the channels through which these spillover effects occur.The research findings are as follows:Firstly,for an emerging economy,an increase in other countries'weighted capital control intensity strengthens the synchronization of its economic cycle with that of the US This spillover effect is mainly driven by capital inflow controls and controls on cross-border portfolio investments.Meanwhile,other countries'controls on FDI(For⁃eign Direct Investment)somewhat increase the economic cycle independence of the domestic country.Secondly,the spillover effects are mainly influenced by cross-border portfolio investment controls.When other countries tighten capital controls,it ex⁃pands bilateral capital flows between the domestic country and the US,strengthening financial connections and economic cycle synchronization.From the macroeconomic growth accounting perspective,other countries'strengthened capital controls mainly affect the synchronization of capital accumulation.Also,emerging economies with lower levels of industrialization and closer bi⁃lateral trade with the US are more affected by tightened capital inflow controls in other emerging economies'.This paper is one of the first to provide empirical evidence of negative externalities that capital controls impose on the mac⁃roeconomic stability,deepening the mechanistic understanding of their spillover impacts.

关 键 词：资本管制 资本流动 经济周期同步性 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]