产业结构与汇率制度选择  

A Study on the Selection of Industrial Structure and Exchange Rate Regime

作　　者：范言慧[1] 罗文颖 张宇航 Fan Yanhui;Luo Wenying;Zhang Yuhang(China School of Banking and Finance,University of International Business and Economics;Zhongtai Securities Co.,Ltd)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院 [2]中泰证券股份有限公司

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2025年第2期38-48,共11页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：一国汇率制度的选择不应忽视其产业结构的作用。本文基于全球136个经济体1999—2020年的跨国面板数据,采用有序离散因变量模型,探讨产业结构对汇率制度选择的影响。研究发现:产业结构转型升级对浮动汇率制度选择有显著的正向推动作用。中介效应检验发现,以国内消费占GDP比重衡量的消费依存度和以服务贸易比重衡量的贸易结构是产业结构影响汇率制度选择的中介渠道。进一步研究发现,产业结构对汇率制度选择的影响并不随经济体收入水平、宏观审慎政策的实施力度不同而表现出异质性,而经济体自身经济发展程度、贸易开放度、持有外币资产比重在产业结构影响汇率制度选择中表现出调节效应。本文的研究结果说明,汇率制度的选择应与产业结构相协调、相适应。The choice of exchange rate system is a widely concerned issue in the financial field both domestically and in⁃ternationally.A reasonable and appropriate exchange rate system can maintain a country's currency exchange rate balance and ensure the smooth development of the economy's foreign trade activities.This paper focuses on the impact of structural changes on the selection of exchange rate regimes within the economy.Based on a transnational panel data set of 136 sample countries from 1999 to 2020,this paper uses an ordered discrete de⁃pendent variable model to examine the impact of industrial structure upgrading on the selection of exchange rate regime.The re⁃search finds that upgrading industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the selection of exchange rate regime.The more developed the industrial structure,the more inclined the economies are to choose the exchange rate regime with a higher degree of exchange rate flexibility,while the economies with relatively underdeveloped industrial structures tend to choose the fixed exchange rate regime.This conclusion remains significant after addressing endogeneity issues such as bidirectional causality.The mesomeric ef⁃fect test indicates that the consumption dependency,measured by the proportion of domestic consumption in GDP,and the trade structure,measured by the proportion of service trade,serve as the intermediary channels for the influence of industrial structure on the selection of exchange rate regime.This article also finds that the impact of industrial structure on the selection of exchange rate system does not vary according to a country's income level and macroeconomic prudential policies,while eco⁃nomic development,trade openness,and the proportion of foreign currency assets held exhibit a moderating effect.This indi⁃cates that the selection of a country's exchange rate system should be coordinated and adapted to its industrial structure.The re⁃search conclusions of this article have contributed to the existing literature in

关 键 词：汇率制度 产业结构 消费依存度 贸易结构 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]