最终投资的测度、特征事实与引致因素——基于RCEP的实证分析  

Measurement,Characteristics and Formative Factors of Ultimate Investment—Empirical Analysis Based on RCEP

作　　者：符磊 何咪 强永昌[2] 李占国[3] Fu Lei;He Mi;Qiang Yongchang;Li Zhanguo(School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University;School of Economics,Fudan University;Taizhou Branch of Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]河海大学经济与金融学院 [2]复旦大学经济学院 [3]江苏省社会科学院泰州分院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2025年第2期49-60,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国对‘一带一路’沿线国家直接投资的技术利益共享与保护机制研究”(20BJL063);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目“吸引高质量外资加快构建新发展格局”(23ZXZA006);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B210207018)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于双边外商直接投资存量数据,运用吸收马尔可夫链方法对2017—2022年全球主要经济体的最终投资数据进行测算,初步梳理了从全球到《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,RCEP)区域再到中国的主要特征事实,以RECP成员国为样本实证检验了最终投资的引致因素。研究发现:第一,大国间的最终投资联系较直接,联系更紧密。第二,撤资行为正在世界范围内频繁发生。第三,新加坡与中国香港的存在对于RCEP区域直接投资的积极意义较最终投资更大。第四,中国对发达国家的最终投资整体已下降一个台阶,对发展中国家的最终投资不断增加,发起的最终投资以中等规模为主。第五,经济复杂性、制度环境和知识产权保护水平是RCEP区域引致最终投资的核心因素。本文丰富了“最终投资”的相关研究,为促进国际投资发展提供了新视角和新证据。As global investment practices undergo profound changes and the investment linkages created by Interna⁃tional Direct Investment become more limited,the issue of Ultimate Investment becomes increasingly important.Based on the bilateral Foreign Direct Investment stock data,this article uses the Absorbing Markov Chain method to measure the Ultimate In⁃vestment data of global economies in 2017-2022,and initially outlines the main characteristics about the Ultimate Investment,and then empirically examines the formative factors of Ultimate Investment with a sample of RCEP member countries.The find⁃ings of this study are as follows.Firstly,Ultimate Investment linkages among large countries are stronger than those of Direct In⁃vestment.Secondly,divestment is occurring more frequently around the world.Thirdly,the presence of Singapore and Hong Kong SAR has a more positive impact on Direct Investment in the RCEP region than on Ultimate Investment.Fourthly,China's Ultimate Investment in developed countries as a whole has declined by one step,while its Ultimate Investment in developing countries has been increasing.Ultimate investments initiated by China are primarily medium-sized.Fifthly,economic complex⁃ity,the institutional environment and the intellectual property protection are the core factors leading to Ultimate Investment in the RCEP region.This article enriches the research on Ultimate Investment and provides new perspectives and evidence to pro⁃mote the International Investment development.

关 键 词：最终投资 转手投资 吸收马尔可夫链 引致因素 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]