Scenario analysis of the environmental impacts of breeding structure change from the perspective of farming and breeding balance in Northeast China  

作　　者：Zhe Zhao Sijian Jiang Xuanchang Zhang 

机构地区：[1]Faculty of Economics,School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China [2]College of Geography and Oceanography,Minjiang University,Fuzhou 350108,China [3]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》2025年第1期132-142,共11页中国人口·资源与环境(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Youth Project“Research on the Environmental-economic Synergistic Mechanism and Promotion Strategy of Farming and Breeding Circular Pattern in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China”[Grant No.72303087].

摘　　要：This study uses prefecture-level city statistical data from China from 2000-2022 to measure the supply and demand of livestock manure nitrogen nutrients and calculates farmland livestock carrying capacity using the nitrogen nutrient balance method.We investigate nitrogen supply and demand and livestock carrying capacity in northeast China by comparing emissions from 2000-2022 over the past several decades.The poultry and livestock industry in northeast China has changed significantly over the past two decades:pigs are now the most bred animal and poultry production has increased dramatically.Regional livestock nitrogen emissions are influenced primarily by the size of the local livestock industry chain.Due to regional differences,each region has unique breeding structures.We also predict the anticipated situation in 2050 using the business-as usual scenario.High-risk livestock carrying capacity areas will be concentrated in the northeast and southeast regions,with significantly increased risk indices,compared with those of 2022,particularly in Shenyang,Fushun,and Tieling.Therefore,promoting farming and breeding,improving livestock manure utilization,and returning manure to nearby farmlands are crucial for meeting agricultural green development goals.

关 键 词：Breeding structure change Farming and breeding balance Agricultural green development Northeast China 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]