全球半导体贸易网络的结构演进及稳定性分析  

On structural evolution of the global semiconductor trade network and its robustness

作　　者：王华[1] 李龙 WANG Hua;LI Long(Center for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《科学学研究》2025年第3期462-476,共15页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790096)。

摘　　要：基于2010年、2014年、2018年和2022年的全球进出口贸易数据,本文从产业链视角构建了涵盖原材料、生产设备以及元器件成品3个环节的全球半导体贸易网络。通过对整体结构、节点影响力、社群结构等多个维度进行分析,本文深入剖析了半导体贸易网络的结构特征,并通过冲击模拟探究了该网络在面对不同形式冲击时的稳定性。研究发现:(1)全球半导体贸易网络的“小世界”特征显著,且连通性良好。(2)半导体传统强国的影响力仍然稳固,但新兴势力已不容小觑。(3)在全球半导体贸易网络中,尽管存在“逆全球化”现象,但“全球化”仍是主要趋势。(4)全球半导体贸易网络兼具稳定性和脆弱性。在随机攻击模式下,该网络表现出较强的抵抗能力,其稳定性随着网络规模的增长而增强;然而,该网络在蓄意攻击模式下的抵抗能力较弱,其稳定性随着网络极化程度的加深还会进一步减弱。本文为系统理解全球半导体贸易网络的结构演进及其稳定性提供了有力支持。根据分析结果,中国有必要在要素禀赋原则和技术民族主义之间,探索一条更为务实的半导体产业发展道路,在努力实现独立自主的同时,积极参与全球产业链价值链分工仍应是产业政策的主轴。Utilizing global import and export trade data from 2010,2014,2018,and 2022,this paper constructs a comprehensive global semiconductor trade network from an industrial chain perspective,based on the UNcomtrade database.This network includes three critical stages:Raw materials,Equipment,and Finished components.By examining the overall structure,node influence,and community structure,the study elucidates the structural evolution of the semiconductor trade network.Furthermore,the stability of thenetwork under various forms of shocks is explored through computer program simulation.The study yields several key findings:First,the global semiconductor trade network demonstrates significant"small-world"characteristics,indicating high clustering and shortpath lengths,which facilitate efficient connectivity across the network.Second,the influence of traditional semiconductor powerhouses,such as the United States,Japan,and South Korea,remains strong.However,emerging players,notably China and other East Asiancountries,are becoming increasingly prominent in the global semiconductor landscape.Third,while there are observable trends of"de-globalization,"driven by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts,"globalization"continues to be the prevailing trend within theglobal semiconductor trade network.The intricate interdependencies and collaborations among countries highlight the essential nature ofglobal integration for innovation and supply chain resilience in the semiconductor industry.Fourth,the global semiconductor trade networkexhibits both stability and fragility.It is relatively stable under random attacks,where disruptions are unpredictable and uniformlydistributed.The networks stability tends to increase with its scale,suggesting that a larger and more interconnected network can betterabsorb random shocks.Conversely,the network is more fragile under targeted attacks,where critical nodes or highly connected hubsare deliberately disrupted.This fragility intensifies with the networks polarization,indicating that increased

关 键 词：半导体 产业链 贸易网络 稳定性 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易] F746.9[经济管理—产业经济]