21世纪以来中国粮食生产能力空间重构过程与驱动机制  

The spatial reconstruction process and driving mechanism of China's grain production capacity since the 21st century

作　　者：常晓东 王士君 杨志鹏[4] 秦萌泽 孟欣杰 王思琦 李可 CHANG Xiao-dong;WANG Shi-jun;YANG Zhi-peng;QIN Meng-ze;MENG Xin-jie;WANG Si-qi;LI Ke(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security of Changbai Mountains,Ministry of Education,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Institute for Northeast China Research,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China;Tianjin University of Finance and Economics Pearl River College,Tianjin 301811,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春130024 [2]东北师范大学长白山地理过程与生态安全重点实验室,长春130024 [3]东北师范大学中国东北研究院,长春130024 [4]河北师范大学地理科学学院,石家庄050024 [5]天津财经大学珠江学院,天津301811

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2025年第3期728-749,共22页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171198,42201216,42071219);中国博士后科学基金项目(2022M721303)。

摘　　要：粮食生产能力是保障粮食安全的第一要义,21世纪以来,伴随着快速城镇化与显著气候变化,中国粮食生产能力发生了显著的空间重构过程。基于2000—2022年长时间序列多源省域面板数据,解构中国粮食生产能力的空间重构过程,识别主导驱动因子与关键驱动机制,以期为保障中国粮食安全和服务联合国可持续发展目标决策提供科学参考。研究发现:(1)中国粮食生产能力在生产总量、生产潜力和生产结构方面表现出时空显著性与复杂性。(2)粮食生产总量的空间重心位置整体从豫南向豫北、冀南转移。(3)生产能力空间分布的空间自相关与空间分层异质性特征显著且不断增强;生产能力省际差异的扩大与减小并存,首位特征不突出且不断弱化。(4)生产总量、生产潜力和生产结构的驱动因子存在维度异质性;气候变化与城镇化两大主控因子在粮食生产能力空间重构过程中此消彼长,前期气候变化主导而后期城镇化主导。(5)在城镇化与气候变化的耦合作用下,粮食生产能力在生产总量、生产结构、生产潜力三个不同维度上发生非线性空间重构过程。(6)农业政策通过保障农业土地投入与提升农业经济收益可直接抑制过度的“非粮化”“非农化”转型,进而调控生产结构、保障生产总量并提升粮食生产能力。Grain production capacity is the first essential to ensure food security.Since the beginning of the 21st century,with the rapid urbanization process and significant climate change,China's grain production capacity has undergone a significant spatial reconstruction process.Based on the long-term multi-source provincial panel data from 2000 to 2022,this paper deconstructs the spatial reconstruction process of China's grain production capacity,identifies the dominant driving factors and key driving mechanisms,in order to provide scientific reference for China's food security and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.The results show that:(1)China's grain production capacity shows spatial and temporal significance and complexity in terms of production quantity,production potential and production structure.(2)The spatial center of gravity of the grain production quantity shifted from Southern Henan to Northern Henan and Southern Hebei.(3)The spatial autocorrelation and spatial stratification heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of production capacity are significant and increasing.The expansion and reduction of inter-provincial differences in production capacity coexist,and the primary distribution characteristics are not prominent and continue to weaken.(4)There are dimensional heterogeneity in the driving factors of production quantity,production potential and production structure.The two main controlling factors of climate change and urbanization are changing in the process of spatial reconstruction of grain production capacity.Climate change is dominant in the early stage and urbanization is dominant in the later stage.(5)Under the coupling of urbanization and climate change,the nonlinear spatial reconstruction process of grain production capacity occurs at three levels of production quantity,production structure and production potential.(6)Agricultural policies can directly inhibit excessive"non-grain"and"non-agricultural"transformation by ensuring agricultural land input and increasing agricultur

关 键 词：中国 粮食生产能力 空间重构 驱动机制 城镇化 气候变化 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]