考虑抽蓄电站与风光多主体合作的三方演化博弈与稳定性分析  

Research on Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Stability Analysis Considering Multi-Agent Cooperation Between Pumped Storage Station and Wind-Solar Power Stations

作　　者：段少为 蔡晔 唐夏菲 唐良 谭玉东 DUAN Shaowei;CAI Ye;TANG Xiafei;TANG Liang;TAN Yudong(State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention&Reduction for Power Grid(Changsha University of Science and Technology),Changsha 410114,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410004,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Energy Internet Supply-Demand and Operation,Changsha 410004,China)

机构地区：[1]电网防灾减灾全国重点实验室(长沙理工大学),长沙市410114 [2]国网湖南省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,长沙市410004 [3]能源互联网供需运营湖南省重点实验室,长沙市410004

出　　处：《电力建设》2025年第3期104-115,共12页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52307081);湖南省科技创新“荷尖”计划(2024RC3163);国网湖南省电力有限公司科技项目(5216A221001L)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”背景下,抽蓄电站与风力、光伏电站间因利益驱动形成多主体合作联盟将成为必然,但多主体合作联盟在演化过程中可能出现破裂的情况。演化博弈常用于研究电力市场中的多主体合作运营,可用于研究合作联盟的长期稳定性,但其作为非完全理性博弈方法忽略了博弈过程中存在的复杂性与随机性。基于演化博弈理论构建效益协调模型,优化各主体出力并求解演化博弈收益矩阵,随后分别构建风-光-抽蓄三方确定演化博弈模型、随机演化博弈模型,以此揭示多主体合作联盟形成和破裂的机理。基于某省实际数据得到以下结论:未来抽蓄电站作为主体参与合作联盟具有可行性,且依据新能源装机比例可将合作联盟分为初始阶段、发展阶段、破裂阶段;在随机干扰因素的影响下,光伏电站存在提前退出联盟的可能性,稳定的合作联盟是提高新能源消纳的重要保障。Against the background of the goal of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality",it will be inevitable to form multi-agent cooperative alliance between pumped storage stations,wind power stations,and photovoltaic power stations driven by interests.However,the form of multi-agent cooperative alliance is not static and may break down during the evolution process.Evolutionary games are commonly used to study the cooperative operation of entities in the electricity market,so it can be used to study the long-term stability of cooperative alliances.However,as a non completely rational game method,it ignores the complexity and randomness of the game process.This article constructed a benefit coordination model based on evolutionary game theory,optimized the output of each agents,and solves the evolutionary game benefit matrix.Then,this article constructed tripartite determine evolutionary game model and stochastic evolutionary game model of wind power stations,solar power stations and pumped storage stations,revealing the mechanism of the formation and rupture of multi-agent cooperative alliance.Based on actual data from a certain province,this article concludes that it is feasible for pumped storage stations to participate as entities in the cooperative alliance in the future,and the cooperative alliance can be divided into initial stage,development stage,and rupture stage according to the proportion of new energy installed capacity;Under the influence of random interference factors,there is a possibility for solar power stations to withdraw from the alliance in advance;The stable cooperative alliance has shown excellent performance in ensuring the consumption of new energy.The above conclusions provide theoretical support for the participation of pumped storage power stations in profit oriented cooperative alliances,and provide direction for power grid companies to maintain the stability of cooperative alliances.

关 键 词：抽水蓄能 演化博弈 合作联盟 效益协调 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]