Interactions between Initial and Lateral Boundary Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Prediction  

作　　者：Jingzhuo WANG Jing CHEN Fajing CHEN Yanan Ma 

机构地区：[1]CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Beijing,100081,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China [3]Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China [4]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,100081,China

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2025年第1期116-131,共16页气象学报(英文版)

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242213 and 42105154).

摘　　要：How to construct appropriate perturbations for convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems(CPEPSs)is a critical issue awaiting urgent solutions.As two common perturbations,initial perturbations(IPs)and lateral boundary perturbations(BPs)interact with each other,affecting the model error growth,especially in mesoscale models.Using the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)-CPEPS,this study tries to elucidate how BPs interact with matched and mismatched IPs under varied large-scale weather conditions/forcings.Seven groups of experiments were conducted for strong-forcing and weak-forcing weather regimes over southern China:three with single IPs,one with single BPs,and three with combined perturbations.It is found that the perturbation magnitudes were dominated by meso-α-scale components,and IPs under weak forcing exhibited more pronounced effects than under strong forcing;whereas BPs exerted more pronounced effects under strong forcing than weak forcing regimes.Furthermore,it lasts longer for high-level variables when the perturbation energy from BPs is higher than that from IPs,compared to low-level variables.Moreover,for precipitation and dynamic variables,IPs and BPs can mutually reinforce.The source of these perturbations,and their specific vertical levels,do not alter the extent of their interactions.Nevertheless,the weather regime and the scales of the perturbations influence the strength of their mutual reinforcement.In particular,the weak-forcing regimes exhibit a more pronounced reinforcing effect,and meso-α-scale perturbations are more conducive to fostering interactions compared to meso-β-scale ones.Ultimately,it is the perturbation magnitude inherent in the initial perturbation itself that determines the interactions between IPs and BPs.

关 键 词：INTERACTIONS initial perturbations lateral boundary perturbations convection-permitting ensemble prediction 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]