双碳目标下呼包鄂城市群多情景土地利用优化分析  

Multi-scenario land use optimization analysis of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration under dual carbon targets

作　　者：王宏亮 邱嘉政 吴健生[2,3] WANG Hongliang;QIU Jiazheng;WU Jiansheng(School of Public Management Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Social Governance and Innovation Research Base in Inner Mongolia Autonomous,Hohhot 010070,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学公共管理学院,呼和浩特010070 [2]北京大学城市规划与设计学院,深圳518055 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [4]内蒙古社会治理与创新研究基地,呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《地理研究》2025年第3期656-675,共20页Geographical Research

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2022ZY0206);内蒙古自治区高等学校碳达峰碳中和研究专项(STZX202220)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化的严峻挑战下,土地利用/土地覆被优化对减缓碳排放、促进碳循环平衡的积极作用日益受到重视。本研究以呼包鄂城市群为例,分析了2000—2020年间土地利用/土地覆被的变化及其对碳排放与碳储量的影响,通过整合碳达峰与碳中和目标,为四种不同的发展情景(自然发展情景、碳排放情景、碳储存情景、碳中和情景)构建了目标函数与约束条件,并开发了一个多目标土地利用耦合模型。该模型预测了2030年和2060年呼包鄂城市群土地利用情况、碳排放量和碳储量,并评价了各种情景对达成碳达峰与碳中和目标的影响。研究发现:(1) 2000—2020年呼包鄂城市群土地利用类型经历了显著的变化,碳排放量大幅增加,但区域生态环境总体上呈现改善的趋势。(2)不同情景模拟的2030年与2060年土地利用数量结构与空间格局展现了显著的差异;相比于自然发展情景,其余三种优化情景在经济与生态价值之间取得了更好的平衡,相对降低了碳排放量,增加了碳储量,特别是碳中和情景的表现最为突出。(3)呼包鄂城市群不同区域土地利用/土地覆被变化对“双碳”目标的贡献表现出明显的差异,鄂尔多斯市和包头市在减少碳排放和增加碳储量方面显示出较大潜力。As a crucial part of the Earth's ecosystem,land directly affects the absorption,storage,and release of carbon due to alterations in its utilization modes.Confronted with the severe challenges of global climate change,the positive significance of optimizing land use/land cover in curbing carbon emissions and facilitating carbon cycle balance has been increasingly emphasized.This study takes the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration as an example to examine the changes in land use/land cover and their implications for carbon emissions and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020.By integrating the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,objective functions and constraint conditions were formulated for four distinct development scenarios,namely the natural development,the carbon emissions,the carbon storage,and the carbon neutrality.On this foundation,a multi-objective land use coupling model was devised.Taking into full consideration the interactions and restraints among various factors,this model forecasted the land use conditions,carbon emissions,and carbon storage of the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration in 2030 and 2060 and appraised the impacts of different scenarios on attaining the carbon peaking and neutrality goals.The research findings are as follows:(1)During the period from 2000 to 2020,the land use types in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration witnessed remarkable changes,accompanied by a significant increase in carbon emissions.Nevertheless,the regional ecological environment generally exhibited an upward trend.(2)There were conspicuous differences in the quantitative structure and spatial pattern of land use in 2030 and 2060 simulated by diverse scenarios since each scenario had its own emphasis.However,compared with the natural development scenario,the other three optimized scenarios achieved a better equilibrium between economic and ecological values,relatively reduced carbon emissions,and augmented carbon storage.Notably,the carbon neutrality scenario performed best.(3)There were pronoun

关 键 词：呼包鄂地区 碳达峰 碳中和 多情景 碳排放 碳储量 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]