1980—2019年黄河源区冻土影响下水源涵养空间格局  

Spatial patterns of water conservation under the influence of permafrost in the Source Area of the Yellow River from 1980 to 2019

作　　者：沈琦 罗栋梁 陈方方 刘佳 田世民[4] 雷汶杰 彭贻菲 李世珍 SHEN Qi;LUO Dongliang;CHEN Fangfang;LIU Jia;TIAN Shimin;LEI Wenjie;PENG Yifei;LI Shizhen(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;National Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC Zhengzhou 450003,China;School of Geomatics,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室,兰州730000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003 [5]辽宁工程技术大学测绘与地理科学学院,阜新123000

出　　处：《地理研究》2025年第3期876-890,共15页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2243214);甘肃省科技计划项目(23ZDFA017);中国科学院西部青年学者项目(罗栋梁);甘肃省陇原青年英才(罗栋梁)。

摘　　要：黄河源区冻土空间分布异常复杂,冻土因其特殊的水热物理性质显著影响水源涵养功能,然而冻土影响下的水源涵养空间格局尚未得到充分研究。本文基于InVEST模型模拟黄河源区水源涵养量空间分布变化,同时对黄河源区冻土变化及其对水源涵养的影响进行了研究。结果表明,1980—2019年间,黄河源区多年平均水源涵养量为41.15±14.55 mm,受降水作为主控因素的影响,其整体以(0.10±0.08)mm/a(p>0.05)的速率增加,季节冻土区增加速率(0.09±0.09)mm/a(p>0.05)略高于多年冻土区(0.07±0.07)mm/a(p>0.05);当前,季节冻土区平均水源涵养量约为多年冻土区的1.29倍。多年冻土顶板温度(TTOP)对水源涵养量的单因子解释力为0.20,其多因子交互作用均强于单因子作用。空间回归分析和自相关分析表明,TTOP与水源涵养量呈显著的协同关系,而活动层厚度(ALT)及最大季节冻深(MSFD)均与水源涵养量呈权衡关系。在回归性上,TTOP与水源涵养量回归系数由西北向东南递增,正相关区域集中在季节冻土区;ALT与水源涵养量的回归系数由南向北递增,MSFD与水源涵养量的回归系数由西北向东南递增。在变暖显著、降水微弱增加的气候暖湿作用下,黄河源区多年冻土退化明显,季节冻土以(394.06±62.41)km^(2)/a(p<0.05)的速率增加,推测黄河源区水源涵养量将随多年冻土退化而进一步增加。本研究将为黄河源区水源涵养功能提升和生态环境分区管控提供一定的科学依据。The spatial distribution of frozen ground in the Source Area of the Yellow River(SAYR)is extremely complex and significantly influences water conservation due to its unique hydrothermal and physical properties.However,despite its recognized importance,the spatial patterns of water conservation influenced by frozen ground remain largely underexplored.This study utilizes the InVEST model to simulate changes in the spatial distribution of water conservation in the SAYR,while simultaneously examining the changes in frozen ground and analyzing how these changes impact the water conservation capacity of the region.The results indicate that from 1980 to 2019,the annual average water conservation in the SAYR amounted to 41.15±14.55 mm,with an overall increasing rate of(0.10±0.08)mm/a(p>0.05),primarily driven by precipitation,which remains the dominant controlling factor.The rate of increase in the area of seasonally frozen ground(0.09±0.09)mm/a(p>0.05)was slightly higher than that in the permafrost area(0.07±0.07)mm/a(p>0.05).Currently,the water conservation in the seasonally frozen ground is approximately 1.29 times greater than in the permafrost area.The single-factor explanatory power of the annual average temperature at the top of permafrost(TTOP)on water conservation is 0.20,with multi-factor interactions exerting a stronger influence.Spatial regression and autocorrelation analyses indicate that TTOP significantly synergizes with water conservation,whereas active layer thickness(ALT)and maximum seasonal freezing depth(MSFD)exhibit a trade-off relationship.More specifically,the regression coefficient of TTOP with water conservation increases from northwest to southeast,showing a positive correlation concentrated in the seasonally frozen ground area.Conversely,the regression coefficients of ALT and MSFD with water conservation increase from south to north and from northwest to southeast,respectively.Under the current scenario of significant warming and only slight increases in precipitation,permafrost in the SAYR

关 键 词：黄河源区 水源涵养 冻土 气候暖湿化 空间格局 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P333[天文地球—水文科学] P642.14[水利工程—水文学及水资源]