“碳达峰”目标下云南省能源消费碳排放预测与建议  

Prediction and Suggestions on Carbon Emissions in Yunnan Province under the“Carbon Peak”Target

作　　者：龙海雯 马倩 马谊妮[1] LONG Haiwen;MA Qian;MA Yini(Business School,Yuxi Normal University,Yuxi 653100,China)

机构地区：[1]玉溪师范学院商学院,云南玉溪653100

出　　处：《玉溪师范学院学报》2024年第6期67-74,共8页Journal of Yuxi Normal University

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目(YB2021026).

摘　　要：通过构建扩展的STIRPAT模型对2022—2050年云南省能源消费碳排总量进行预测,结果显示:云南在更高绿色化的低速发展情景下能够于2030年实现“碳达峰”;节能减排技术创新,产业结构绿色化水平提升,能源消费结构绿色化水平提升,是推动云南省“碳达峰”的关键途径.By constructing an extended STIRPAT model,the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in Yunnan Province from 2022 to 2050 were predicted.The prediction results show that Yunnan can achieve“carbon peak”target in 2030 under a low-speed development scenario with higher levels of greening.Promoting technology innovation in energy conservation and emission reduction,enhancing the greening level of industrial structures,and improving the green level of energy consumption structure are key ways to achieving“carbon peak”target in Yunnan Province.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放 碳达峰 STIRPAT 预测 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]