中国下背痛疾病负担趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of the disease burden trend of low back pain in China

作　　者：江桂阳 许建文[1] JIANG Guiyang;XU Jianwen(Department of Rehabilitation Medicine,The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530000,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学第一附属医院康复医学科,南宁530000

出　　处：《数理医药学杂志》2025年第3期151-159,共9页Journal of Mathematical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区基金项目(81260544)。

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2021年我国下背痛的疾病负担情况,并对2022—2050年我国下背痛疾病负担变化趋势进行预测。方法研究数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担研究数据库,选取中国下背痛患病与伤残调整生命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)的绝对计数和年龄标准化率进行分析。利用Joinpoint 5.3.0软件分析下背痛疾病负担趋势及年度平均变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),并构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来趋势。最后利用分解分析探讨人口规模、人口年龄结构及流行病学变化趋势对我国下背痛负担的贡献度。结果Joinpoint回归分析显示,1990—2021年中国下背痛年龄标准化患病率与年龄标准化DALYs率均呈下降趋势,二者AAPC均为-0.66%(95%CI:-0.71%~-0.61%)。2021年中国下背痛患病人数为10009.4万[95%不确定区间(uncertain interval,UI):8712.8万~11301.4万],年龄标准化患病率为5342/10万(95%UI:4660/10万~5976/10万);DALYs为1129.8万人年(95%UI:793.1~1532.8),年龄标准化DALYs率为603/10万(95%UI:428/10万~810/10万)。女性在数量指标上均高于男性。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测结果显示,2050年女性与男性的年龄标准化患病率及DALYs率均呈上升趋势;与2021年相比,2050年女性和男性的年龄标准化DALYs率将分别上升9.5%与2.9%,女性和男性的年龄标准化患病率将分别上升14.2%与4.7%,且下背痛疾病负担多集中于40岁以上人群。分解分析结果显示,人口规模以及人口年龄结构对我国下背痛的疾病负担变化贡献最大。结论尽管中国下背痛疾病负担呈现下降趋势,但未来面临的挑战依然严峻。加强疾病预防措施的普及等对于控制和降低下背痛疾病负担至关重要。Objective To analyze the disease burden of low back pain in China from 1990 to 2021,and forecast the changing trend of the disease burden of low back pain in China from 2022 to 2050.Methods Data was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Database.The absolute counts and age-standardized rates of prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for low back pain in China were selected for analysis. Joinpoint 5.3.0 software was used to analyze the trend of low back pain disease burden and the annual average percentage change (AAPC), and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was constructed to predict future trends. Finally, the contribution degree of population size, population age structure and the epidemiological trend to the burden of low back pain in China was discussed by decomposition analysis. Results Joinpoint regression analysis showed a decreasing trend in the age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of low back pain in China from 1990 to 2021. The AAPC of them was -0.66% [95%CI (-0.71%, -0.61%)]. In 2021, the number of patients with low back pain in China was 100.094 [95% uncertain interval (UI) (87.128, 113.014)] million, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 5 342/100 000 [95%UI (4 660/100 000, 5 976/ 100 000)];the number of DALYs was 11.298 [95%UI (7.931, 15.328)] million, with an age-standardized DALYs rate of 603/100 000 [95%UI (428/100 000, 810/100 000)]. Women had higher quantitative indicators than men. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted an increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALYs for both women and men in 2050. Compared to 2021, the age-standardized DALYs rates for women and men will increase by 9.5% and 2.9%, respectively, and the age-standardized prevalence rates for women and men will increase by 14.2% and 4.7%, respectively. The disease burden of low back pain will be more concentrated in people over 40 years old. The results of the decomposition analysis showed that the population size and the population age structure cont

关 键 词：下背痛 疾病负担 中国 Joinpoint回归模型 贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R681.5[医药卫生—骨科学]