若尔盖生态区CMIP6高分辨率模式气候模拟状况及未来多情景预估  

Climate Simulation and Future Scenario Projection for the Zoige Ecological Region by CMIP6 High-Resolution Models

作　　者：胡芩 齐冬梅[2,3] 周长艳 孟宪红[4] 吕雅琼 杨显玉 HU Qin;QI Dongmei;ZHOU Changyan;MENG Xianhong;LU Yaqiong;YANG Xianyu(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China;Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China;Sichuan Provincial Climate Center,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese academic science,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [3]四川省气候中心,四川成都610072 [4]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [5]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041

出　　处：《高原气象》2025年第2期279-291,共13页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC0230,2022NSFSC1092);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0102);中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所科研项目(IMHE-ZDRW-06);国家留学基金委项目。

摘　　要：若尔盖生态区作为青藏高原独特的高寒泥炭沼泽湿地,其气候变化不仅会影响当地脆弱的生态环境,还会影响黄河上游的气候,甚至对中国西部地区气候稳定起着重要作用。为了探究当前高分辨率气候模式对此地气候状况的模拟能力,以及预估未来此地气候的可能变化,本文使用耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)中的四个高分辨率气候模式AWI-CM-1-1-MR、EC-Earth3、EC-Earth3-CC、MPI-ESM1-2-HR逐月气温、降水资料,对比国家气候中心所提供的CN05.1观测数据集,评估了CMIP6高分辨率模式对若尔盖生态区气温、降水的模拟能力,并在四种不同共享社会经济路径情景下(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway,SSP)进行未来气温和降水的预估。四个高分辨率CMIP6模式都可以模拟出此地气温的分布型和变化趋势,但均存在低估的现象,特别是在若尔盖生态区的西部,多模式集合平均(MME)与观测数据年平均时间序列相关系数为0.75,MME对比观测数据偏低0.75℃;对于降水模拟,模式都明显存在模拟高估,MME偏多1.45 mm·d^(-1),与观测数据的相关系数为0.21;模式可以模拟出南部降水偏多,北部降水偏少的分布型,但在南部存在较大的高估,将会影响水源涵养区水资源评估;对于气温变化趋势的模拟相比降水更理想。模式的未来预估结果表明,预计到2100年,若尔盖生态区在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景分别相对于历史基准时期增温1.8、3.2、5.2和5.8℃;降水量相比于历史时期在低浓度SSP1-2.6情景下增加最为显著,2100年增幅对比历史时期约为0.4 mm·d^(-1),而中等浓度到高浓度SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景,到21世纪末期降水变化略有增长且差异较小,增加幅度为0.1~0.2 mm·d^(-1)之间。研究结果可为黄河上游水源涵养区水资源管理及当地气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据,也对若尔盖湿地生态保护有着重要的意义。As a unique alpine peat swamp wetland situated on the Tibetan Plateau,climate change in the Zoige ecological region not only impacts its own fragile ecological environment,but also exerts influence over the climate dynamics of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.Moreover,it plays crucial role in the climate stabilization of the western China.To investigate the simulation ability of the current high-resolution climate models in this area and to project the possible changes of the climate in this area in the future,this paper uses the four highresolution climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6(CMIP6),AWI-CM-1-1-MR,EC-Earth3,EC-Earth3-CC,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,and MPI-ESM1-2-HR,compared with the CN05.1 observation dataset provided by the National Climate Center,to evaluate the simulation capability of CMIP6 high-resolution models on the temperature and precipitation of the Zoige ecological region,and to make future temperature and precipitation projection under four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios.The results show that all the high-resolution CMIP6 models can simulate the distribution pattern and trend of temperature in the Zoige ecological region,but all of them have the underestimation of temperature,especially in the western Zoige ecological region,where the correlation coefficient of multi-model ensemble(MME)with the annual average time series of the observed data is 0.75,and the MME is lower than the multi-year average of the observed data by 0.75℃.For the precipitation simulation,there is an obvious simulation overestimation in all models as well as MME,with an overestimation of 1.45 mm·d^(-1) in MME,and the correlation coefficient between MME and the observed data is 0.21 for the less satisfactory simulation of precipitation trend compared with the temperature.In 2100,the SSP scenarios with low to high emission concentrations of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are expected to have warming increases of about 1.8,3.2,5.2 and 5.8°C,respectively,rela

关 键 词：若尔盖生态区 CMIP6 高分辨率气候模式 未来预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]