京津冀2022年11-12月冷暖转折成因分析  

Analysis on the Cause of Cold and Warm Transition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei during November-December 2022

作　　者：高旭旭 车少静 杜浩昱[1,2,3] GAO Xuxu;CHE Shaojing;DU Haoyu(China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiong'an New Area 071800,Hebei,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,Hebei,China;Hebei Climate Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北雄安新区071800 [2]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [3]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《高原气象》2025年第2期323-334,共12页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505604);河北省气象局科研开发项目(21ky02);河北省气象局延伸期重要天气过程智能预测技术创新团队项目。

摘　　要：2022年11-12月京津冀气候出现明显的暖冷转折,11月和12月两个月平均气温温差大,达到10.6℃,位列1961年以来第一位,与1971年和1980年持平。本文基于NCEP/NCAR再分析和气候指数等数据,从大气环流转折、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)及北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)对气温异常影响的年代际变化角度,探究了京津冀地区2022年11月和12月气温转折的可能原因。研究结果表明:(1)11-12月,乌拉尔山阻塞高压和西伯利亚高压的强度,以及西太平洋副高的强度发生了转折性变化,导致11月京津冀地区气候异常偏暖,12月异常偏冷。(2)通过与1971年、1980年和2005年的冷暖转折事件对比,大气环流转折特征存在年代际变化,2022年和2005年11月偏暖除了北方冷空气活动偏弱外还受到南方暖气流北上的影响,12月偏冷则出现在北极增暖和西伯利亚高压显著偏强的背景下。(3)ENSO与京津冀11月气温以及AO与12月气温相关性在21世纪00年代明显增强,拉尼娜背景下AO由11月正位相转为12月负位相,气温出现反相概率高,2022年恰为拉尼娜年,在AO位相由正转负的影响下,11-12月京津冀出现冷暖转折事件。During November-December of 2022,the climate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)showed significant cold and warm transition,and the average air temperature difference between November and December was 10.6°C,ranked first with 1971 and 1980 since 1961.Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and multiple climate index data,the possible causes of the air temperature transition in November and December 2022 in BTH was explored from the perspective of the interdecadal influence of atmospheric circulation transition,ENSO and AO on variation of temperature anomalies.The results show that the weak strength of the Ural Mountains Blocking High and the Siberian High,as well as the strong strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical high led to the abnormally warm climate in the BTH region in November.But the turning of the atmospheric circulation in December,the strengthening of the Ural Blocking high,the deepening of the East Asia Great trough,the strengthening of the Siberian high,and the northerly air flow in BTH,resulting in the abnormally cold December.The temperature anomaly difference of these two months showed obvious interdecadal changes,positive in 1961-1985,negative in 1986-2003,and positive again in 2004-2022.Compared to the cold and warm transition events in 1971,1980,and 2005,there were interdecadal changes observed in atmospheric circulation transitions.The weak cold air activity in the north and the southern warm air flow influenced by the strengthening of the Western Pacific subtropical high acted together to cause the warm November of 2022 and 2005.However,the weak cold air activity in the north was mainly influence factor for warm November 1971 and 1980.The combination of significant Arctic warming and a significantly stronger Siberian high led to unusually cold Decembers in 2022 and 2005.The correlation between ENSO and November temperature in the BTH,as well as the correlation between AO and December temperature,exhibited a significant increase during the 2000s.In the context of La Niña,AO transitioned from a positiv

关 键 词：冷暖转折 京津冀 ENSO AO 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]