基于GM(1,1)模型与GIS的城市充电设施布局优化  

Optimisation of Urban Charging Facilities Layout Based on GM(1,1)Model and GIS

作　　者：南棋梦 叶青[1] 李悦[1] NAN Qimeng;YE Qing;LI Yue(College of Civil Engineering,Huaqiao University,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期183-191,共9页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：福建省创新战略研究项目(2023R0040)。

摘　　要：为解决城市充电基础设施分布不均衡、利用不充分问题,采用GM(1,1)模型及Arc GIS空间网络分析功能,对现有充电基础设施布局展开优化。首先,通过灰色预测模型分析未来电动汽车增长情况,以厦门市为例,选取2016-2023年电动汽车保有量数据,经预测至2030年将达到45万辆,以此作为充电总需求计算依据,届时公共充电桩总数需达到64490个。其次,基于城市交通路网、兴趣点(POI)分布、充电基础设施及公共停车场场点等数据展开核密度分析及缓冲区分析进行初次选址,建立最小化设施点模型完成二次选址。最后,利用Voronoi图对模型选址结果进行检验,并通过位置分配模型完成容量分配。结果表明:至2030年,厦门市需在16处公共停车场处新建充电站,充电站整体扩容比例达到72.89%,在全市3000 m充电服务半径范围内覆盖率为99.08%,1500 m范围内为95.41%,基本满足电动汽车用户未来出行的充电需求。In order to solve the problem of unbalanced distribution and insufficient utilisation of urban charging infrastructure,GM(1,1)model and the spatial network analysis function of Arc GIS are used to optimise the layout of the existing charging infrastructure.The grey prediction model is used to analyse the future growth of electric vehicles,taking Xiamen City as an example,according to the data of electric vehicle ownership from 20162023,450000 electric vehicles will be predicted by 2030,which is the basis for calculating the total charging demand,and the total number of public charging piles demanded by that time is 64490.Based on data such as urban transport network,point of interest(POI)distribution,charging infrastructure,and public car park locations,kernel density analysis and buffer zone analysis are conducted for initial site selection,and a minimum facility point model is established to complete secondary site selection.The model site selection results are checked using Voronoi diagrams,and the capacity allocation is completed by the location allocation model.The results show that by 2030,Xiamen City needs to build new charging stations at 16 public car parks,and the overall expansion ratio of charging stations reaches 72.89%,the coverage rate is 99.08%within 3000 m charging service radius,and 95.41%within 1500 m radius,which basically meets the charging needs of electric vehicle users for future travel.

关 键 词：电动汽车 保有量预测 充电设施 Arc GIS 选址定容 

分 类 号：U491.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] F224.9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]