气候变化对土壤中硝氮污染物的迁移影响——以龙游县为例  

Effects of Climate Change on Migration of Nitrate and Nitrogen Pollutants in Soil:Taking Longyou County as an Example

作　　者：刘欢[1] 许悦 王乐婧 LIU Huan;XU Yue;WANG Yuejing(Hohai University,Nanjing 210000,Jiangsu,China;Tongxiang Water Resources Bureau,Tongxiang 314500,Zhejiang,China;Quzhou Wuxijiang Branch,China Huadian Group Co.,Ltd.,Quzhou 324000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京210000 [2]桐乡市水利局,浙江桐乡314500 [3]中国华电集团有限公司衢州乌溪江分公司,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《浙江水利科技》2025年第2期25-33,38,共10页Zhejiang Hydrotechnics

摘　　要：2021年12月,生态环境部等七部门联合发布《“十四五”土壤、地下水、农村生态环境保护规划》,浙江省根据该规划制定了至2025年,将受污染耕地安全利用率提高至95%左右的目标。据此,以浙江省衢州市龙游县为研究区域,根据该区1992—2022年的历史气象数据与土样数据,建立模型并对土壤中硝氮浓度变化进行模拟。在得到日硝氮浓度变化数据的基础上,通过M-K趋势检验、Pettitt突变检验、皮尔逊相关性分析、多元回归分析的方法,对研究区域气候变化即气象因子对土壤中硝氮浓度迁移变化的影响进行分析。得到结论:①硝氮浓度随时间变化有明显周期性,且与降雨量的趋势变化更密切、与潜在蒸发量的趋势变化发展存在一定的时间差;②降雨量与硝氮浓度变化有更大的相关性,两者之间存在显著的影响关系;③降雨量显著正向影响硝氮浓度的值,潜在蒸发量负向影响硝氮浓度的值,且降雨量对硝氮浓度变化的贡献更大。土壤中硝氮浓度的变化呈现出一定的季节规律特征,并通过此规律,结合地区气候特征,对土壤中硝氮易累积时段作出预测并提前准备防治方法。In December 2021,seven departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the“14th Five-Year Plan for the Protection of Soil,Groundwater and Rural Ecological Environment”,according to which Zhejiang Province raised the safe utilization rate target of polluted farmland to about 95%.Based on this,Longyou County,Quzhou City,Zhejiang Province,was taken as the research area,and a model was established to simulate the change of nitrate nitrogen concentration in soil according to the daily historical meteorological data and soil sample data from 1992 to 2022 in this area.Based on the data of daily nitrate nitrogen concentration change,M-K trend test,Pettitt mutation test,Pearson correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the influence of regional climate change,that is,meteorological factors,on the migration and change of nitrate nitrogen concentration in soil.The results are as follows:(1)The nitrate nitrogen concentration has an obvious periodicity with time,and it is more closely related to the trend change of rainfall,and there is a certain time difference with the trend change of potential evaporation;(2)There is a greater correlation between rainfall and nitrate nitrogen concentration,and there is a significant relationship between the two;(3)Rainfall has a significant positive influence on the nitrate nitrogen concentration,and potential evaporation has a negative influence on the nitrate nitrogen concentration,and the contribution of rainfall to the change of nitrate nitrogen concentration is greater.The variation of nitrate and nitrogen concentration in soil shows a certain seasonal regularity.Based on this regularity and regional climate characteristics,the accumulation period of nitrate and nitrogen in soil can be roughly predicted and the prevention and control methods can be prepared in advance.

关 键 词：HYDRUS-1D模型 M-K趋势检验 Pettitt突变检验 皮尔逊相关性分析 多元回归分析 

分 类 号：X53[环境科学与工程—环境工程]