用于市场准入条件判定的建筑需求响应潜力量化方法  

Quantifying method for buildings'demand response potential applied to market access condition determination

作　　者：邸亮 董杰 闫馨月 甄成 田喆[2] 牛纪德[2] DI Liang;DONG Jie;YAN Xinyue;ZHEN Cheng;TIAN Zhe;NIU Jide(Longyuan(Beijing)Alternative Energy Engineering Design and Research Institute Company Limited,Beijing 100034,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]龙源(北京)新能源工程设计研究院有限公司,北京100034 [2]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《综合智慧能源》2025年第3期15-22,共8页Integrated Intelligent Energy

基　　金：天津市重点研发计划项目(22YFZCSN00180)。

摘　　要：建筑是电力需求响应的重要潜在资源,而当前建筑需求响应数据匮乏,且建筑物理结构、围护结构、用能行为特征多样以及气象条件复杂等特点使电网难以精准而快速地判断其需求响应潜力,阻碍了需求响应市场的发展。传统潜力量化方法多适用于单一建筑,无法支撑电力市场对多样化的潜在用户进行准入条件判定,难以筛选目标用户并对申报信息的可靠性进行审查。为了解决上述问题,提出一种基于数据驱动的建筑需求响应潜力快速量化方法。考虑建筑响应潜力影响因素与市场对申报信息的要求设置输入、输出变量;采用EnergyPlus-JEPlus-Eppy的工具链条生成完备数据集,提升模型泛化能力;以数据驱动建模方式开发潜力量化模型,实现需求响应潜力的快速量化。以南京某典型办公建筑为对象,选择全局温度调节为削峰手段验证方法的有效性,算例结果显示所开发潜力量化模型均方误差为0.0096,决定系数(R2)高于0.9。该方法面对不同建筑以及需求响应场景均能实现准确潜力量化。Buildings are important potential resources for electricity demand response(DR).But the features of the power grid including lack of demand response data,diversity of physical structures and building envelopes,and complexity of consumption behaviors and meteorological conditions make it difficult to accurately and quickly calculate the DR potential of buildings,hindering the development of the DR market.Most traditional potential quantification methods are applicable to a single building.They can hardly support the judgement on the market access conditions of diverse potential users,or select the qualified target users with a review on the reliability of the declared information.To solve the problems above,a data-driven method based on the quantification of buildings'DR potential is proposed.Firstly,the input and output variables are set by considering the factors influencing the building DR potential and the requirements for the declared information.Then,the tool chain called EnergyPlus-JEPlus-Eppy is used to generate a complete dataset,improving the model generalization.Finally,a data-driven modelling approach is used to develop a potential quantification model to achieve rapid quantification of DR potential.The effectiveness of the method is verified by a typical office building in Nanjing by choosing global temperature regulation as the peak-shaving means.The results of the case show that the proposed model can keep the mean squared error(MSE)of the predicted potential within 0.0096 with a coefficient of determination(R2)higher than 0.9.The method enables accurate quantification on DR potential for different buildings in various scenarios.

关 键 词：需求响应 电力市场 潜力量化 数据驱动 灵活性负荷 “双碳”目标 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]