新质生产力与乡村振兴的耦合协调关系及互动效应研究  

Study on the coupling coordination and interactive effects between new-quality productive forces and rural revitalization

作　　者：吴贵华[1] 梁发超 逯付荣[1] WU Guihua;LIANG Fachao;LU Furong(School of Tourism;School of Politics and Public Administration,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou,Fujian 362021,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院 [2]华侨大学政治与公共管理学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第1期22-34,共13页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BGL190);福建省社会科学基金一般项目(FJ2021B025)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2022年我国30个省份(港澳台地区及西藏除外)的面板数据,采用熵值法测度新质生产力和乡村振兴的发展水平,并通过耦合协调度模型和面板向量自回归模型实证分析二者的互动关系。研究发现:新质生产力和乡村振兴的发展水平整体呈现出缓慢上升的发展趋势;新质生产力与乡村振兴的耦合协调度呈现出先快速增长后波动上升的发展趋势,二者的耦合协调度处于高度拮抗阶段;新质生产力的地区差异呈扩大趋势,而乡村振兴的地区差异呈缩小趋势,二者的耦合协调度呈现出“东部>中部>东北>西部”的空间分布格局;从短期来看,新质生产力与乡村振兴之间存在双向促进作用,而从长期来看,二者更多受到自我增强机制影响;新质生产力和乡村振兴不构成双向因果关系,仅呈现出乡村振兴促进新质生产力发展的单向因果关系。据此,提出发展新质生产力、深化农业场景创新、强化农村组织引领和构建协同发展模式等对策,以推进农业高质量发展和城乡融合协同发展。Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Xizang)from 2010 to 2022,this study employs the entropy method to measure the development levels of new quality productive forces and rural revitalization.The interaction relationship between the two is empirically examined using the coupling coordination degree model and the panel vector autoregression model.The results indicate that both new quality productive forces and rural revitalization exhibit a gradual upward trajectory in their development levels.The coupling coordination degree between new quality productive forces and rural revitalization demonstrates an initial rapid growth phase followed by a fluctuating upward trend,currently residing in a high-level conflicting stage.Regional disparities in new quality productive forces are widening,where as those in rural revitalization are narrowing,with the spatial distribution of their coupling coordination degree adhering to the hierarchy of"Eastern>Central>Northeast>Western".In the short term,a bidirectional promoting effect is observed between new quality productive forces and rural revitalization;while in the long term,their interaction is predominantly governed by self-reinforcing mechanism.A unidirectional causal relationship is identified,wherein rural revitalization drives the development of new quality productive forces,but not vice versa.In light of these findings,the study proposes a series of policy recommendations,including fostering new quality productive forces,deepening agricultural scenario innovation,enhancing rural organizational leadership,and establishing a coordinated development framework,so as to facilitate the high-quality development of agriculture and promote integrated urban-rural development.

关 键 词：乡村振兴 新质生产力 互动关系 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F329.9