人口空间集聚红利的概念、产生机制与实证检验——基于中国285个城市面板数据的分析  

The Concept,Generation Mechanism and Empirical Test of Population Spatial Agglomeration Dividend:An Analysis Based on Panel Data of 285 Cities in China

作　　者：童玉芬[1] 杨艳飞 TONG Yufen;YANG Yanfei(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第2期1-15,共15页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“从人口发展新常态到人口高质量发展的引领机制与实现路径”(24ARK001)。

摘　　要：随着我国城镇化进程的推进,人口从中小城市向大城市、城市群集聚的趋势依然存在。合理利用“人口空间集聚红利”对于推动我国经济高质量发展具有重要作用。首先对“人口空间集聚红利”的概念进行界定,其次分析人口空间集聚红利产生的机制,然后在数理推导的基础上,建立空间计量回归模型,对我国2000—2021年285个城市进行实证研究与检验。研究发现:在人口空间集聚机会窗口期,我国的人口空间集聚能够产生显著的人口红利;人口空间集聚红利随着人口空间集聚程度的增大呈现出倒“U”型变化;相对于常住人口规模在100万及以下的中小城市,常住人口规模在500万及以上的大城市、特大及超大城市更能有效获得人口空间集聚红利;人口空间集聚对于本地经济发展产生直接的积极影响,但是会间接对周围地区产生一定的虹吸效应。在我国传统人口红利逐渐式微的背景下,城镇化进程还有巨大的发展空间,需要充分把握我国人口向城市集聚的机会窗口期,对人口进行分类引导和施策,尽快在人口空间集聚机会窗口期释放人口空间集聚红利,推动中心城市与周围地区的协同高质量发展,构建分布合理的现代化人力资源开发体系。With the advancement of China’s urbanisation process,the trend of population agglomeration from small and medium-sized cities to large cities and urban agglomerations still exists.The rational utilization of the“population spatial agglomeration dividend”plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.This paper first defines the concept of“population spatial agglomeration dividend”,then analyses the mechanism of its generation and establishes a spatial econometric regression model on the basis of mathematical derivation to conduct empirical research and testing on 285 cities in China from 2000 to 2021.It is found that:1)During the opportunity window period of spatial population agglomeration,China’s spatial population agglomeration can generate a significant demographic dividend.2)The demographic dividend of spatial population concentration shows an inverted U-shape change as the degree of spatial population agglomeration increases.3)Compared with small and medium-sized cities with a permanent resident population of 1 million or less,large cities,megacities and super cities with a permanent resident population of 5 million or more can more effectively obtain the demographic dividend of spatial population concentration.4)Spatial population concentration has a direct positive impact on local economic development,but which may also have a certain siphoning effect on the surrounding areas.Against the background of the gradual decline of traditional demographic dividends in China,the urbanisation process still has huge room for development.It is necessary to fully grasp the window of opportunity for China’s population to gather in cities,guide the population by category and implement policies,release the dividend of population spatial agglomeration as soon as possible during the window of opportunity for population spatial agglomeration,with aim to promote the synergistic and high-quality development of the central city and the surrounding areas,and build a reasonab

关 键 词：人口空间集聚红利 城镇化 人口红利 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]