家庭人口老化与代际阶层流动——基于CGSS微观数据的实证检验  

Family Population Aging and Intergenerational Social Mobility:An Empirical Test Based on CGSS Micro-Data

作　　者：许娜[1] 冯大威 XU Na;FENG Dawei(Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;School of Digital Economy,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]江西财经大学数字经济学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第2期70-84,共15页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“机器人应用的就业极化与收入极化效应研究:理论机制、实证识别与政策”(72373057)。

摘　　要：代际流动性偏低和老龄化程度日益加剧已成为中国居民当前面临的两大突出挑战。人口老龄化加剧了微观层面家庭人口老化现象,进而改变了家庭代际关系,导致代际流动性降低。基于2010—2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)混合截面数据,分别以家庭老年抚养比、阶层代际传递作为度量指标,从微观视角考察家庭人口老化对代际阶层流动性的负向影响。结果显示,中间社会阶层表现出较强的继承性,中低阶层之间具有向上代际传递的趋势,中高阶层则面临向下流动的压力;代际阶层固化现象随着家庭人口老化进一步加剧,尤其体现在子代出生于1970年及以后、高收入和生活在城镇地区的家庭中;从影响机制来看,家庭医疗支出在家庭人口老化抑制代际阶层流动性提升过程中发挥着完全中介效应。据此,研究认为从降低医疗支出负担角度设计政策方案缓解家庭养老压力刻不容缓。Low intergenerational mobility and the increasing aging population have become two prominent challenges faced by Chinese residents.Population aging has intensified the aging of family members at the micro level,thereby altering intergenerational relationships within families and reducing intergenerational mobility.Based on the pooled cross-sectional data from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)from 2010 to 2021,this paper examines the negative impact of family population aging on intergenerational social mobility from a micro perspective,using the elderly dependency ratio and intergenerational class transmission as measurement indicators.The results show that the middle social class exhibits strong inheritance,with an upward trend in intergenerational transmission between the lower middle and middle classes,while the upper-middle class faces downward mobility pressure.The phenomenon of intergenerational class solidification has been further exacerbated by family population aging,especially among families where the offspring were born after 1970,those with high-income families,and living in urban areas.In terms of the influence mechanism,family medical expenditure plays a full mediating role in the process of family population aging inhibiting the improvement of intergenerational social mobility.Therefore,this paper argues that it is urgent to design policy solutions to alleviate family elderly care pressure from the perspective of reducing medical expenditure burdens.

关 键 词：家庭人口老化 阶层代际传递 代际阶层流动性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学] F063.4