“患贫”还是“患不均”?——收入水平、收入分化对劳动力流动网络的因果效应  

Choosing High Income or Equality:The Causal Effects of Income Level and Income Differentiation on Labor Mobility Network

作　　者：王群勇[1] 孙倩 WANG Qunyong;SUN Qian(School of Economics,Nankai University,TianJin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第2期85-103,共19页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“社会网络的计量经济理论与应用研究”(22BJY160)。

摘　　要：以往文献更多关注收入水平对劳动力流动的影响,忽略了收入分化及其网络效应。基于2011—2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建劳动力流动网络,运用时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)与反事实模拟研究了区域收入水平与区域收入分化对劳动力流动网络的复杂影响。研究表明:劳动力患贫更患不均,劳动力流向高收入地区,同时从收入高分化地区流向相对平等的地区,收入分化对于劳动力流出的作用尤为显著,相比于提高地区收入水平,改善分化更有助于缓解流失。高技能和低技能劳动力存在异质性,高技能劳动力重视收入水平,倾向于流向高收入地区,对收入分化不敏感;而低技能劳动力不仅受收入水平影响,区域的收入分化水平对其具有更大的驱动作用。反事实模拟显示,若东北地区的基尼系数下降一个标准差,则劳动力流出减少约22万人,流入增加约6万人;当人均收入提高一个标准差,则劳动力流出减少约12万人,流入增加约4万人。人均收入对劳动力流动的影响更为复杂,如果没有基尼系数的改善,只有收入水平提高不一定改善劳动力流失的状况。结论揭示了收入与劳动力流动之间的复杂关系,为劳动力流动网络演化研究提供了新的视角,对于区域协调发展和人口高质量发展具有重要的政策借鉴意义。Previous literature has predominantly focused on the impact of income levels on labor mobility,but overlooking income differentiation and its network effect.Based on the monitoring data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2017,this study constructs a labor mobility network and employs the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)and counterfactual simulations to examine the complex influences of regional income levels and income disparities on the labor mobility network.The findings reveal as follows:1)Labor force is driven by poverty and inequality:labor force moves towards higher-income areas,while also flowing from regions with high income disparity to those with relative equality.Compared with the improvement of regional income level,improving the differentiation is more conducive to alleviating the outflow.2)There is heterogeneity between high-skilled and low-skilled labor forces.Highly-skilled labor attaches importance to income level,which tends to flow to high-income areas;thus,it is not sensitive to income differentiation.The low-skilled labor force is not only affected by the income level,but also the regional income differentiation level has a greater driving effect on it.3)Counterfactual simulations indicate that one standard deviation decrease in the Gini coefficient in the Northeast region would reduce labor outflow by approximately 220000 people and increase inflow by about 60000 people.When per capita income rises by one standard deviation,labor outflow decreases by about 120000 people,and inflow increases by approximately 40000 people.The impact of per capita income on labor mobility is complex,that is to say,without an improvement in the Gini coefficient,merely increasing income levels does not necessarily ameliorate labor outflow.The conclusions of this paper reveal the intricate relationship between income and labor mobility,which offers a new perspective for the study of labor mobility networks and provides significant policy implications for regional coordinated development an

关 键 词：劳动力流动网络 收入效应 时间指数随机图模型 网络因果效应 反事实模拟 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F249.24