碳排放权交易对劳动力需求的影响研究——基于技术改造的视角  

Study on the Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading on Labor Demand:A New Perspective Based on Technological Transformation

作　　者：王静 蔡培峰 WANG Jing;CAI Peifeng(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100091

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第2期104-118,共15页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命背景下电力市场体制机制改革研究”(19ZDA083)。

摘　　要：2013年中国政府启动碳排放权交易(CET)试点政策,旨在实现“碳中和”和“碳达峰”的目标。然而,CET的实施无疑增加了多数高排放企业的生产成本,这可能导致部分企业缩减规模甚至停业,从而对就业稳定性产生潜在的冲击。鉴于就业状况关乎经济发展与社会稳定,因此,深入剖析CET对劳动力需求的影响及其内在机制,为政府提供相应的政策依据和决策支持显得尤为重要。鉴于此,依托生产函数理论,通过将CET机制嵌入生产函数模型,来阐明CET如何内在地调节劳动力需求,并剖析CET对不同类型企业劳动力需求异质性影响的机理。然后,基于2005—2019年试点企业的数据,采用多时点PSM-DID模型对理论机理进行实证检验。研究发现,CET显著降低了试点企业的劳动力需求。机理分析表明,CET对劳动力需求的抑制效应由技术改造的多种效应共同驱动,其中技术改造的规模效应和生产率效应促进就业,要素替代效应抑制就业,前者小于后者。此外,CET对劳动力需求的影响具有时变特征,2013—2019年间劳动力需求先下降后回升。CET对污染企业、低技能劳动力具有就业破坏效应,对清洁企业、高技能劳动力具有就业创造效应。基于上述研究发现,提出政府应优化人才培养体系、建立完善的劳动力市场监测体系、准确获取企业信息从而帮助污染企业进行批量整改等政策建议。In 2013,the Chinese government initiated the carbon emission trading(CET)pilot policy,aiming to achieve the goals of“carbon neutrality”and“carbon peaking”.However,the implementation of CET undoubtedly increases the production cost pressure on most high-emission enterprises,potentially leading to downsizing or even closure of some enterprises,thereby posing a potential negative impact on employment stability.Given that employment conditions are crucial to economic development and social stability,it is important to analyze the impact of CET on labor demand and its underlying mechanisms.Thus we can provide corresponding a policy basis and decision-support for the government.Grounded in the production function theory,we elucidate how CET intrinsically regulates labor demand by embedding the CET mechanism into the production function model,and analyze the mechanism of CET’s heterogeneous impact on labor demand across different types of enterprises.Based on data from pilot enterprises spanning from 2005 to 2019,we empirically test the theoretical mechanisms using the overlapping PSM-DID model.The research finds that CET significantly reduces labor demand in the pilot enterprises.The mechanism analysis reveals that the inhibitory effect of CET on labor demand is jointly driven by multiple effects of technological transformation,among which the scale effect and productivity effect of technological transformation promote employment,while the factor substitution effect inhibits employment,with the promoting effects being smaller than the inhibiting effect.The impact of CET on labor demand exhibits time-varying characteristics,with labor demand declining first and then rebounding between 2013 and 2019.CET has a employment destruction effect on polluting enterprises and low-skilled labor but a employment destruction effect on clean enterprises and high-skilled labor.Based on these findings,we propose that the government should optimize the talent cultivation system,establish a comprehensive labor market monitoring

关 键 词：碳排放权交易 技术改造 劳动力需求 就业破坏效应 就业创造效应 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F424.21