Waning success:a 2013-2022 spatial and temporal trend analysis of malaria in Ethiopia  

作　　者：Abdollah Jalilian Galana Mamo Ayana Temesgen Ashine Elifaged Hailemeskel Yehenew Asmamaw Ebstie Eshetu Molla Endashaw Esayas Nigatu Negash Abena Kochora Muluken Assefa Natnael Teferi Daniel Teshome Alison M.Reynolds David Weetman Anne L.Wilson Birhanu Kenate Martin J.Donnelly Luigi Sedda Endalamaw Gadisa 

机构地区：[1]Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group,Lancaster Medical School,Lancaster University,Lancaster,UK [2]Malaria and Neglected Tropical Disease,Armauer Hansen Research Institute,Addis Ababa,Ethiopia [3]Public Health Emergency Management,Research,and Blood Bank Service Directorate,Oromia Region Health Bureau,Addis Ababa,Ethiopia [4]Public Health Emergency Management,Research,and Blood Bank Service Directorate,Dire Dawa City Administration Health Bureau,Dire Dawa,Ethiopia [5]Department of Vector Biology,Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine,Pembroke Place,Liverpool,UK

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2024年第6期104-105,共2页贫困所致传染病(英文)

基　　金：supported by the National Institute for Health Research(NIHR)-Welcome partnership for Global Health Research[220870/Z/20/Z to MJD,AR,DW,AW,EG,TA,YW,LS and AJ].

摘　　要：Background Despite consecutive decades of success in reducing malaria transmission,Ethiopia went offtrack towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2030,as outlined in the NMCP malaria strategy.Recent malaria outbreaks in Ethiopia are attributed to the emergence and spread of diagnostic and drug-resistant Plasmodium falcipa-rum,increased insecticide resistance in major vectors and the spread of invasive Anopheles stephensi.The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,environmental anomalies and internal conflicts have also potentially played a role in increasing malaria transmission.This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and An.stephensi to the spatiotemporal trends of recent malaria cases in Ethiopia.Methods Clinical malaria case data reported weekly between January 2013 and January 2023 were obtained from the Ethio-pian Public Health Institute(EPHI),Addis Ababa.A negative binomial regression model was used to explain the variability and potential overdispersion in the weekly number of malaria cases reported across Ethiopian administrative zones.This model incorporated fixed effects for selected environmental factors and random effects to capture temporal trends,zone specific seasonal patterns,spatial trends at the zone level,and the presence of An.stephensi and its impact.Results Our negative binomial regression model highlighted 56%variability in the data and slightly more than half(55%)was due to environmental factors,while the remainder was captured by random effects.A significant nation-wide decline in malaria risk was observed between 2013 and 2018,followed by a sharp increase in early 2022.Malaria risk was higher in western and northwestern zones of Ethiopia compared to other zones.Zone-specific seasonal pat-terns,not explained by environmental factors,were grouped into four clusters of seasonal behaviours.The presence of An.stephensi was not shown to have any significant impact on malaria risk.Conclusions Understanding the spatial and temporal drivers of malaria transmission and

关 键 词：Anopheles stephensi Environmental factors Malaria risk SPATIOTEMPORAL Ethiopia 

分 类 号：R53[医药卫生—内科学]