特朗普回归对全球能源产业的影响  

The Impacts of Donald Trump's Return on the Global Energy Industry

作　　者：毛若冰 张一白 张文宇 MAO Ruobing;ZHANG Yibai;ZHANG Wenyu(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《石油石化绿色低碳》2025年第1期19-24,31,共7页Green Petroleum & Petrochemicals

摘　　要：特朗普重返白宫将对国际政治经贸秩序形成全面冲击,并持续输出巨大不确定性。作为坚定不移的化石能源爱好者和根深蒂固的气候变化怀疑论者,特朗普的能源政策具有鲜明的个人特色,叠加其与拜登政府迥然不同的外交政策和经济政策,将深刻影响全球能源产业发展趋势。该文系统梳理特朗普的传统油气政策和能源转型政策特点,通过分析其能源政策目标,研判特朗普能源政策的调整方向,从基本面、宏观面、地缘面等三个维度分析对全球能源产业的影响,并针对性提出中国能源公司的应对建议。Donald Trump's return will probably have a comprehensive impacts on the world political and economic order,and continue to export huge uncertainties.As an unwavering enthusiast of fossil fuels and ingrained skeptic of climate change,Trump's energy policy of his distinct personal characteristics,along with his unconventional foreign policy and economic policy that are radically different from the Biden administration,will profoundly influence the growing trends of the global energy industry in the coming years.This essay systematically reviews the features of Trump's traditional oil and gas policies and energy transformation policies,on the basis of analyzing the geopolitical objectives,predicts the probable adjustment direction of Trump's energy policy after the inauguration ceremony in January of 2025,analyzes the policy impacts on the global energy industry from three dimensions such as energy supply and demand,macroeconomics,and geopolitics,and puts forward coping strategies for Chinese energy companies.

关 键 词：能源政策 地缘政治 能源产业 油气贸易 能源霸权 国际化布局 风险管理 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济] D815[政治法律—国际关系]