2018—2022年中国西南某市相对湿度、温度与大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响  

Influence of relative humidity,temperature and atmospheric pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in a city in southwest China from 2018 to 2022

作　　者：苏恒宇 孙高峰[2] 谢惠芳[1] SU Heng-yu;SUN Gao-feng;XIE Hui-fang(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830017,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第3期447-454,共8页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区“十四五”高等学校特色学科-公共卫生与预防医学;新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才”医药卫生高层次人才培养计划(TSYC202301B073)。

摘　　要：目的探讨亚热带湿润气候下中国西南某盆地城市中不同组别的相对湿度、温度、大气污染物及其交互作用对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响及滞后效应。方法收集2018—2022年中国西南某市逐日的气象、空气污染物和居民呼吸系统死亡的资料,采用准泊松分布的分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag-wise nonlinear model,DLNM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)进行时间序列分析。结果该市呼吸系统疾病累积死亡11779人。在lag15时,SO_(2)浓度每升高10 ug/m^(3)对人群呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响最大,RR=1.055(95%CI:0.993~1.120)。单因素分组滞后模型中,极高温组(≥P_(95))中温度每上升1℃对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响在lag0时最大,为1.710(95%CI:1.209~2.418)。多因素模型中,以SO_(2),NO_(2)为协同因素时,相对湿度对呼吸系统死亡影响在lag18时最大,为1.026(95%CI:1.000~1.053),温度对死亡的RR在lag0时最大,为1.024(95%CI:1.010~1.038)。交互作用显示:相对湿度、温度与各污染物均存在交互作用,60%~80%的湿度水平与SO_(2)、NO_(2)交互产生的死亡风险最大。结论各因素对呼吸系统疾病死亡存在独立影响和滞后效应。不同湿度水平与污染物交互作用对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响不同且可能存在协同或拮抗效应,其中中等湿度水平与污染物交互产生的死亡风险最大,高湿度与污染物交互产生的影响反而降低。Objective To explore the influence and lag effects of different groups of relative humidity,temperature,atmospheric pollutants and their interactions on respiratory disease mortality in a basin city in southwest China under a subtropical humid climate.Methods Daily meteorological,air pollutant and respiratory-related mortality data of residents in a city in southwest China from 2018 to 2022 were collected,and time-series analysis was carried out using the distributed lag-wise nonlinear model(DLNM)with quasi-Poisson distribution and the generalized additive model(GAM).Results A total of 11779 people died of respiratory diseases in this city.At lag15,when the SO_(2) concentration increased by 10μg/m^(3),the impact on the respiratory disease mortality of the population was the greatest,with RR=1.055(95%CI:0.993-1.120).In the single-factor grouped lag model,in the extremely high-temperature group(≥P95),when the temperature increased by 1℃,the impact on respiratory disease mortality was the greatest at lag0,which was 1.710(95%CI:1.209-2.418).In the multi-factor model,when SO_(2) and NO_(2) were taken as synergistic factors,the impact of relative humidity on respiratory mortality was the greatest at lag18,which was 1.026(95%CI:1.000-1.053),and the RR of temperature on mortality was the greatest at lag0,which was 1.024(95%CI:1.010-1.038).Interaction analysis showed that there were interactions among relative humidity,temperature and various pollutants,and the mortality risk generated by the interaction between 60%-80% humidity level and SO_(2) and NO_(2) was the greatest.Conclusion Each factor has an independent influence and lag effect on respiratory disease mortality.The interactions between different humidity levels and pollutants have different impacts on respiratory disease mortality and may have synergistic or antagonistic effects.Among them,the mortality risk generated by the interaction between medium humidity level and pollutants is the greatest,while the impact generated by the interaction between high hu

关 键 词：大气污染物 气象因素 呼吸系统疾病死亡 交互作用 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R122.7