跨流域调水经济产出强度影响因素与门限效应研究  

Analysis of Threshold Effects on Factors Influencing Economic Output Intensity in Inter-Basin Water Transfers

作　　者：贾雅各 何凡[1] 王丽川 路培艺 孙润萌 JIA Ya-ge;HE Fan;WANG Li-chuan;LU Pei-yi;SUN Run-meng(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第3期215-218,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52061125101,52394231)。

摘　　要：现阶段我国调水工程经济性问题日益凸显,为科学认识中国跨流域调水经济产出强度的主要影响因素,基于我国34项已建调水工程(涉及城市69个)2017~2020年的年度面板数据,构建人均GDP与调水经济产出强度之间的门限模型,并将万元GDP用水量与第二三产业产值占比作为控制变量验证该非线性关系的稳健性,得到了“一阈值、两区制、三因素”的成果。结果表明,人均GDP与跨流域调水经济产出强度之间存在显著的单门槛效应,门限值γ=89405元/人,将样本划分为高、低社会经济水平区制;在不同区制,人均GDP、万元GDP用水量、第二三产业产值占比三个因素对跨流域调水经济产出强度的影响存在显著差异;为提升调水经济产出强度,高社会经济水平区制应重点推动经济增长和保持高效用水,而低社会经济水平区制则应侧重于提高用水效率和优化产业结构。The economic challenges of water diversion projects in China have become increasingly prominent.To gain a deeper understanding of the key factors influencing the economic output intensity of cross-basin water transfer projects,a threshold model was constructed using annual panel data from 34 completed projects(covering 69 cities)between 2017 and 2020.The model examined the relationship between per capita GDP and water transfer economic output intensity.Control variables,such as water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP and the output share of the secondary and tertiary industries,were included to test the robustness of this nonlinear relationship.The findings revealed a structure of"one threshold,two regions,and three factors."The results show that there is a significant single-threshold effect between per capita GDP and the economic output intensity of cross-basin water transfer,with a threshold value of=89405 yuan/person,dividing the sample into high-and low-socio-economic regions;The impact of per capita GDP,water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP,and the output share of the secondary and tertiary industries on economic output intensity varies significantly across regions;To improve economic output intensity,high socio-economic regions should prioritize economic growth and efficient water use,while low socio-economic regions should focus on enhancing water efficiency and optimizing industrial structure.

关 键 词：跨流域调水 经济产出强度 门限效应 人均GDP 万元GDP用水量 第二三产业产值占比 

分 类 号：TV-9[水利工程]