应急疏散中的公众为何犹豫不从?——基于防护行动决策模型的多案例比较分析  

Why does the Public Hesitate in Emergency Evacuation?——Comparative Analysis Multiple Cases Based on Protection Action Decision Model

作　　者：兰雨潇 杨巨声 彭宗超[1,3] Lan Yuxiao;Yang Jusheng;Peng Zongchao

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]北京大学政府管理学院 [3]清华大学应急管理研究基地/中国社会风险评估研究中心

出　　处：《风险灾害危机研究》2024年第1期171-200,共30页Journal of Risk, Disaster & Crisis Research

基　　金：国家自科基金重点项目“重大突发事件协同研判与决策机制研究”(72134003);清华大学文科建设“双高”计划项目“国家应急管理体系与能力现代化研究”(2022TSG03301)支持

摘　　要：灾害期间引导公众应急疏散是政府的基本职责,但是在此过程中公众却常因犹豫而错失疏散黄金期。为什么公众收到疏散通知后仍会犹豫不决及不从?本文基于防护行动决策模型,对涿州洪水事件中因犹豫及不从而延迟疏散的案例进行比较分析。研究发现,公众犹豫不从现象在应急前、中、后三个疏散时期都存在。公众犹豫不从的原因复杂多元,主要受五大因素影响,机理在于:灾害幸存经历和应急救援行动均通过影响风险感知的方式影响防护行动决策;安置地点信息、家庭亲属特征、公共服务动机分别通过削弱防护行动感知、强化利益相关者感知、强化责任感知的方式,促使公众做出延迟疏散决策。触发公众延迟疏散决策的受众感知包含风险感知、防护行动感知、利益相关者感知三种“利己”感知,也包括责任感知这一“利他”感知。公众犹豫不从现象的深层逻辑源自中国社会现代化进程中的市场竞争文化、宿命论文化、平等群体文化和官僚群体文化。本文从公众视角出发,丰富了危机决策研究,拓展了经典的防护行动决策模型,可以为政府改进应急疏散工作提供有益启示。It is the fundamental responsibility of the government to provide guidance to the public for evacuating during disasters.However,the public often misses the optimal window for evacuation due to hesitation.This paper aims to conduct an exploratory analysis of delayed evacuation caused by hesitation in the Zhuozhou flood event,utilizing a multi-case comparison method based on the protection action decision model.The findings revealed that:(1)Public hesitation occurred before,during,and after emergency evacuation;(2)Factors such as disaster survival experience,information about resettlement locations,family characteristics,motivation for public service,and emergency rescue actions contributed to public hesitation and delayed evacuation decisions by influencing risk perception,protection action perception,stakeholder perception,responsibility perception;(3)There are not only three types of“egoistic”perceptions but also one type of“altruistic”perception that influences decisions regarding public protection actions;(4)The underlying rationale behind public hesitation stems from four risk cultures within Chinese social modernization.From a public perspective,this study has enriched research on crisis decision-making and expanded upon the classic protection action decision-making model.It can offer valuable insights for government efforts aimed at enhancing emergency evacuation procedures.

关 键 词：应急疏散 公众遵从 防护行动决策模型 多案例比较分析 

分 类 号：X91[环境科学与工程—安全科学] D63[政治法律—政治学] C934[政治法律—中外政治制度]