辽宁省重要矿产资源供需形势及保障程度分析  

Analysis on Supply-Demand Situation and Guarantee Degrees of Important Mineral Resources in Liaoning Province

作　　者：高忠晖 滕寿仁 李崴崴 王玉平 袁昆 王冶 GAO Zhonghui;TENG Shouren;LI Weiwei;WANG Yuping;YUAN Kun;WANG Ye(Liaoning Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang,Liaoning 110032,China;Liaoning Geological Exploration and Mining Group Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang,Liaoning 110032,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省地质矿产研究院有限责任公司,辽宁沈阳110032 [2]辽宁省地质勘探矿业集团有限责任公司,辽宁沈阳110032

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2025年第3期271-280,共10页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：辽宁省矿产资源规划(2021—2025年)编制及审查项目(JH21-210000-13396)。

摘　　要：为准确预测辽宁省“十四五”期间重要矿产资源的供需形势和保障程度,以“十三五”期间矿产资源开发利用情况为基础,采用需求趋势分析方法,通过追踪产业链,收集其上下游生产环节的开发利用数据或其下游产品终端市场的消费数据,预测“十四五”期间铁矿石、煤炭、金矿石、菱镁矿石、熔剂用灰岩和硼矿石的需求及保障能力。采用2021年和2022年各矿种的实际产量和消耗量验证了预测结果的准确性。结果表明,未来5年,铁矿石需求量为18375万~19110万t/a,煤炭需求量为17992万~19135万t/a,金矿石需求量为811万~892万t/a,菱镁矿石需求量为3048万~3381万t/a,熔剂用灰岩需求量为1496万~1540万t/a,硼矿石需求量为416万~539万t/a。菱镁矿石和熔剂用灰岩保障程度较高,可达到供需平衡,金矿石仍需要大量进口,铁矿石、煤炭和硼矿石保证程度不足,需进一步加强深部及外围相关矿产资源勘查,强化开采能力建设。In order to accurately predict the supply-demand situation and guarantee degrees for important mineral resources in Liaoning Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period,based on the development and utilization of mineral resources during the 13th Five Year Plan period,the method of demand trend analysis was adopted to track the industrial chain,and the development and utilization data of upstream and downstream production links or consumption data of downstream product end markets were collected.The demand and guarantee capacity of iron ore,coal,gold ore,magnesite,flux limestone,and boron ore during the 14th Five Year Plan period were predicted.The accuracy of the prediction results was verified by the actual yield and consumption of each mineral in 2021 and 2022.The results show that the demand for iron ore ranges from 183.75 million to 191.1 million tons per year,coal from 179.92 million to 191.35 million tons per year,gold ore from 8.11 million to 8.92 million tons per year,magnesite from 30.48 million to 33.81 million tons per year,flux limestone from 14.96 million to 15.4 million tons per year,and boron ore from 4.16 million to 5.39 million tons per year in the next 5 years.The guarantee degree of magnesite and flux limestone is relatively high,which can achieve supply-demand balance.Gold ore requires a large amount of imports,and the guarantee degree of iron ore,coal,and boron ore is insufficient.It is necessary to further strengthen the exploration of deep and peripheral mineral resources and improve mining capacity construction.

关 键 词：矿产资源 供需形势 保障程度 需求预测 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F407.1