系统性视角下的燃气管道灾害多因素耦合理论研究  

Multi⁃factor Coupling Theory Research of Gas Pipeline Disaster from Systematic Perspective

作　　者：李乔楚 LI Qiaochu(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,成都610500

出　　处：《焊管》2025年第3期35-43,共9页Welded Pipe and Tube

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究”(项目编号22&ZD105);国家社会科学基金西部项目“‘双碳’目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究”(项目编号22XGL019)。

摘　　要：基于灾害系统理论和多因素耦合理论,在厘清灾害内涵、形成机制及系统性构成的基础上,探讨燃气管道灾害系统多因素耦合的定义、特征、分类及效应。首先从词源角度出发探讨“灾害”的内涵,立足内外诱因、作用主体和承受能力三方面阐明灾害形成原因和必要条件。其次,结合灾害系统理论将燃气管道灾害系统解构为孕灾环境、灾害因子、承灾体和灾情四大子系统,将多因素耦合作用划分为子系统内部耦合与子系统间耦合两大类型,并进一步明确耦合发生的阶段性特征。再次,阐明灾害系统多因素耦合的随机性、突发性、非线性和不可逆性特征,并从“触发能力”和“严重程度”两方面剖析耦合作用对灾害的影响效应。最后,依据多元因素间的影响强度、作用方向和因素类型开展多因素耦合效应划分。研究表明,四大灾害子系统内部和子系统间多元因素的促进和抑制作用是灾害演化多样性、复杂性的所在,在灾害防治工作中需准确把握多因素耦合的初始区域并识别关键耦合点,兼顾“断链”和“解耦”双重视角。Based on disaster system theory and multi-factor coupling theory,the definition,characteristics,classification and effects of multi-factor coupling in gas pipeline disaster system are discussed on the basis of clarifying the connotation,formation mechanism and systematic composition of disaster.Firstly,it discusses the connotation of"disaster"from the perspective of etymology,and expounds the causes and necessary conditions of disaster from three aspects:internal and external inducement,main body and bearing capacity.Secondly,combined with the theory of disaster systems,the gas pipeline disaster system is deconstructed into four subsystems:disaster pregnant environment,disaster factors,disaster bearing body and disaster condition.The multi-factor coupling effect is divided into two types:internal coupling of subsystems and coupling between subsystems,and the stage characteristics of coupling occurrence are further clarified.Thirdly,the randomness,abruptness,nonlinearity and irreversibility of multi-factor coupling in disaster system are expounded,and the effects of coupling on disaster are analyzed from the aspects of"trigger ability"and"severity".Finally,the multi-factor coupling effect was divided according to the influence intensity,direction of action and type of factors.The research shows that the promotion and inhibition of multiple factors within and between the four disaster subsystems are responsible for the diversity and complexity of disaster evolution.In disaster prevention and control work,it is necessary to accurately grasp the initial region of multi-factor coupling and identify the key coupling points,taking into account the dual perspectives of"chain break"and"decoupling".

关 键 词：系统性视角 燃气管道 灾害系统 多因素耦合 理论研究 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]