中国省际经济增长动能的聚敛特征检验与传导路径识别  

The Convergence Character Test and Transmission Paths Identification of the Driving Force of China's Provincial Economic Growth

作　　者：刘达禹[1] 向思宇 宋洋 Liu Dayu;Xiang Siyu;Song Yang(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012 [2]西南财经大学财政税务学院,611130

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2025年第2期22-39,共18页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“消费结构转型引领共同富裕的机制分析与实现路径研究”(24YJA790029);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“央行沟通语境分析、通胀预期形成机制与中央银行信誉优化研究”(2024T170338);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“央行沟通语义识别、通货膨胀预期引导与央行信誉优化研究”(2024M751074)的联合资助。

摘　　要：明确中国省际经济增长动能的聚敛特征和传导路径是理解经济增速省际分化的基础。为此,本文使用非线性时变因子模型、非线性Granger因果关系检验和DY动态溢出指数考察了各省份经济增长动能的聚敛特征和传导路径。研究发现,经济增长动能主要来源于有效需求扩张和经济结构优化;省际有效需求变化既包括强省消费需求扩张的“牵拉效应”,又包含弱省投资需求低迷的“下拉效应”;经济增长动能传导既包括低动能省份向下牵拉高动能省份,也包括低动能省份间的交叉传导。未来一个时期内,宏观经济治理应高度注重需求管理,并将工作重心落脚于提高中低收入群体的实际可支配收入和稳定就业,从而引导经济稳步回升。Clarifying the convergence characteristics and transmission paths of the driving forces of China's provincial economic growth is a prerequisite for understanding provincial growth differentiation.Therefore,this paper uses a nonlinear time-varying factor model,nonlinear Granger causality test,and DY dynamic spillover index to examine the conver-gence and transmission characteristics of the driving force of China's provincial economic growth.It is found that the driving force of China's provincial economic growth mainly comes from the expansion of effective demand and the optimization of economic structure.The effective demand changes include both the"pulling effect"of consumption demand expansion in strong provinces and the"pulling-down effect"of insufficient investment demand in underdevelopment provinces.The transmission paths include both the low growth prov-inces pulling down high growth provinces and the cross contagion among low growth provinces.In the coming period,macroeconomic governance should attach great importance to demand management and focus on improving the real disposable income of low-and middleincome groups as well as stable employment,so as to guide a steady recovery of economy.

关 键 词：经济增长动能 需求管理 结构性增长放缓 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]