人口老龄化、家庭债务与消费支出  

Population Aging,Household Debt and Consumption

作　　者：李心雅[1,2] 楚尔鸣 Li Xinya;Chu Er’ming(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,China;School of Finance&Investment,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,411105 [2]广东金融学院金融与投资学院,510521

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2025年第2期40-60,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973117);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20220628)资助。

摘　　要：在当前中国人口老龄化及居民杠杆率高企的背景下,如何提升居民消费水平和消费质量对于经济长期增长意义重大。本文通过理论分析得出,家庭老年抚养比的上升会通过增加预防性储蓄、降低家庭收入和家庭杠杆率降低家庭消费,基于CFPS数据的实证分析也得出了一致的结论。家庭老年人口的增加对家庭消费的影响在短期和长期均显著为负,且长期对家庭消费的负面效应更强;家庭债务的扩张在短期内具有一定的财富效应,增加了家庭当期的消费支出,但是从长期来看,该效应会逐渐弱化,异质性分析也发现,高债务水平家庭的长期财富效应并不显著;对消费结构的进一步分析发现,家庭老年人口增加会显著增加家庭的医疗保健支出并挤出家庭其他消费,降低了家庭的消费质量。本文的政策含义是,要提升社会养老和医疗保障水平,抵御老年人的医疗支出风险,降低家庭的养老负担,同时要进一步缓解家庭的住房债务及其他债务压力,以促进消费高质量发展。In the context of China's aging population and high household leverage ratio,it is of great significance to enhance the level and quality of household consumption for long-term economic growth.Through theoretical analysis,this paper concludes that the rise of the family eldercare ratio will lead to an increase in precautionary savings,a reduction in household income,and a lower household leverage ratio,thereby reducing household consumption.The empirical analysis also reached a consistent conclusion.The impact of the increase in the number of elderly people in the family on household consumption is significant and negative in both the short and long term,and the negative effect in the long term is stronger.In the short term,household debt has a certain wealth effect,increasing the household's current consumption expenditure,but from the long-term perspective,the ef-fect will gradually weaken.The heterogeneity analysis also found that the long-term wealth effect of high debt level households is not significant.Further analysis of consumption structure shows that the increase in the number of elderly people in the family will significantly increase the family's healthcare expenditure and crowd out other consumption,thereby reducing the family's consumption quality.The policy implication of this paper is to enhance social pension and medical insurance levels to mitigate the medical expenditure risks of the elderly and reduce the family's eldercare burden.At the same time,further implement the housing's residential attribute to alleviate household debt pressure and promote high-quality consumption.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 抚养比 家庭杠杆率 消费结构 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]