数字经济背景下人口流动对碳排放绩效的影响——来自中国城市的经验证据  

The Impact of Population Mobility on Carbon Emission Performance in the Context of Digital Economy:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities

作　　者：田淑英[1] 郭浩 董战峰 TIAN Shuying;GUO Hao;DONG Zhanfeng(Economics School,Anhui University,Hefei Anhui 230601,China;Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100041,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]生态环境部环境规划院,北京100041

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第4期13-21,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“加快推进生态环境治理体系和治理能力现代化研究”(20&ZD092);国家社会科学基金重点项目“推动绿色发展促进人与自然和谐共生的政策取向研究”(21AZD058);安徽省社会科学规划专项课题“长三角‘一地六县’集中合作区绿色发展的协同创新机制研究”(AHSKXZX2020D11)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2019年中国285个地级及以上城市组成的面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型、调节效应模型等,实证研究了人口流动对碳排放绩效的影响,并深入分析了数字经济对二者的调节效应。研究发现,人口流动显著提升了碳排放绩效,但也受到城市资源禀赋、地理位置差异以及人口流动规模的影响;绿色技术创新和产业结构高级化是人口流动提升碳排放绩效的重要机制;数字经济具有显著的正向调节作用,发展水平越高,人口流动对碳排放绩效的促进作用越强。基于研究结论,从继续深化户籍制度改革、提升数字经济低碳化水平等方面提出促进碳排放绩效的政策建议,以期为推动低碳经济发展提供有益借鉴。Based on the panel data composed of 285 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2019,this paper empirically investigates the impact of population mobility on carbon emission efficiency using models such as the bidirectional fixed effects model and moderation effects model.The paper also delves into the moderating effects of the digital economy on the relationship between population mobility and carbon emission efficiency.The findings reveal that population mobility significantly enhances carbon emission efficiency but is influenced by factors such as urban resource endowment,geographical disparities,and the scale of population mobility.Green technology innovation and advanced industrial structure are identified as crucial mechanisms through which population mobility improves carbon emission efficiency.The digital economy exhibits a significant positive moderating effect,with a higher level of development strengthening the promotional impact of population mobility on carbon emission efficiency.Based on these conclusions,policy recommendations are proposed,including further reforming the household registration system and enhancing the carbonization level of the digital economy,aiming to provide valuable insights for promoting low-carbon economic development.

关 键 词：数字经济 人口流动 碳排放绩效 低碳发展 超效率SBM-GML 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]