京津冀旅游效率与生态环境的动态响应及协调效应研究  

Research on the Dynamic Response and Coordination Effects of Tourism Efficiency and Ecological Environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：郭伟[1,2] 刘彤彤 杨硕[1] GUO Wei;LIU Tongtong;YANG Shuo(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China;Regional Economic Development Center,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学区域经济发展研究中心,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第4期142-147,168,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目“新发展理念下河北省旅游高质量发展水平测度及提升路径研究”(HB22GL017)。

摘　　要：论文在探讨2013—2020年京津冀旅游效率与生态环境的相互作用及其协调发展趋势。通过构建京津冀旅游效率与生态环境评价指标体系,采用PVAR模型来分析京津冀旅游效率与生态环境之间的动态互动关系,进一步利用耦合协调模型和马尔科夫链模型,深入探索两者的耦合协调演化特征及未来发展趋势。研究表明:京津冀旅游效率与生态环境之间存在双向动态作用关系,其中生态环境的改善对旅游效率提升有显著的促进作用;京津冀旅游效率和生态环境二者协调发展水平逐渐增强,空间绝对差异逐渐缩小;京津冀旅游效率和生态环境二者耦合协调度具有维持原有状态的稳定性,存在“俱乐部收敛”现象,并且空间因素对耦合协调状态的转移概率具有显著影响。This study explores the interaction and trends between tourism efficiency and ecological environment coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2013 to 2020.By constructing an evaluation index system for tourism efficiency and ecological environment,and using the PVAR model and Markov chain model,this paper analyzes their dynamic interactions and future development trajectories.The results show that there is a clear bidirectional dynamic relationship between tourism efficiency and the ecological environment,with improvements in the ecological environment significantly promoting the growth of tourism efficiency.Additionally,the level of their coordinated development has continuously increased,the spatial differences have significantly narrowed,and they exhibit the characteristics of“club convergence”,where the current status is maintained stably,with spatial factors having a significant impact on state transition probabilities.

关 键 词：旅游效率 生态环境 动态响应 协调效应 京津冀 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] X171.1[经济管理—产业经济]