RCEP生效对中国经济的影响及应对策略  

The Impact and Response Strategy of RCEP Implementation on China's Economy

作　　者：欧阳强[1] 南玉歆 OUYANG Qiang;NAN Yuxin

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《当代经济》2025年第4期83-94,共12页Contemporary Economics

基　　金：湖南省研究生科研创新项目,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RECP)的经济效应及应对策略研究,编号:CX20210808。

摘　　要：在全球经济环境日益复杂的背景下,RCEP的生效发挥了稳定和推动经济增长的关键作用。基于GTAP模型,通过模拟成员国间关税减让和非关税壁垒削减的不同情景,分析RCEP在GDP、社会福利水平、贸易条件以及进出口贸易等方面的多重效应。研究发现,RCEP的实施对成员国经济发展具有显著的促进效应,对非成员国经济产生负面影响,削减非关税壁垒会加重RCEP对成员国的贸易创造效应以及对非成员国的贸易转移效应。Admist the increasingly complex and volatile global economic environment,the effectiveness of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)has played a pivotal role in stabilizing and fostering economic growth.Using the GTAP model,this study analyzed the multifaceted effects of RCEP on GDP,social welfare,terms of trade,and import-export dynamics by simulating various of scenarios of tariff concessions and reductions in non-tariff barriers among member countries.The findings indicate that RCEP significantly promotes the economic development of member countries while exerting certain negative impacts on non-member's economies.Additionally,reductions in non-tariff barriers amplify trade creation effects among member countries and intensify trade diversion effects for non-member countries.

关 键 词：RCEP GTAP模型 经济效应 非关税壁垒 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]