低碳发展、绿色技术创新与就业的关系——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析  

The Relationship Between Low-carbon Development,Green Technological Innovation,and Employment:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

作　　者：佘士永 姜楠[1] SHE Shiyong;JIANG Nan

机构地区：[1]临沂大学

出　　处：《当代经济》2025年第4期103-112,共10页Contemporary Economics

摘　　要：基于中国低碳发展背景,采用2011—2022年30个省级行政区面板数据,建立面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,实证分析了低碳发展、绿色技术创新与就业的互动机制。结果表明:低碳发展与绿色技术创新存在双向格兰杰因果关系,两者相互促进;低碳发展与绿色技术创新对彼此的促进作用均是先增强,后减弱。低碳发展是就业的格兰杰原因,但反之并不成立;低碳发展对就业增加起到先抑制后促进的作用,但抑制作用并不明显,且促进作用先增强,后减弱。低碳发展、绿色技术创新与就业的变动均存在惯性,即具有一定的正向强化机制,但随着时间的推移,这一作用逐渐减弱。基于以上结论,提出不断拓展低碳发展空间,增强低碳发展的就业创造效应;大力推进低碳发展,提高绿色技术创新水平以及强化两者的协同效应等建议。Based on the context of low-carbon development in China,this study utilized panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions from 2011 to 2022 and constructed a Panel Vector Autoregression(PVAR)model to empirically analyze the interactive mechanisms between low-carbon development,green technological innovation,and employment.The results show that there is a bidirectional Granger causality between low-carbon development and green technological innovation,with both variables mutually reinforcing each other.The promotion effect of low-carbon development and green technological innovation on each other first strengthens and then weakens over time.Low-carbon development is a Granger cause for employment,but the reverse does not hold.Low-carbon development initially suppresses,then promotes employment growth,although the suppressive effect is not significant.The promoting effect first strengthens and then weakens.Additionally,the changes in low-carbon development,green technological innovation,and employment exhibit inertia,suggesting a positive reinforcement mechanism that gradually diminishes over time.Based on these findings,recommendations are made to continuously expand the scope of low-carbon development,enhance its employment creation effects,vigorously promote low-carbon development,improve green technological innovation levels,and strengthen the coordinated effects between these factors.

关 键 词：节能降碳 就业 绿色技术创新 产业升级 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.4