Gap dynamics in the U.S.between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario  

作　　者：Haoyu Wang Xiuyuan Zhang Shihong Du Yuyu Zhou Donghai Wu Qian Wang Lubin Bai Bo Liu Shuping Xiong 

机构地区：[1]College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [2]Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [3]Department of Geography,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR 999077,China [4]Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong SAR 999077,China [5]Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems,South China Botanical Garden,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510650,China [6]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [7]Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [8]Key Laboratory of Network Information System Technology(NIST),Institute of Electronics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China

出　　处：《Geography and Sustainability》2025年第1期143-158,共16页地理学与可持续性(英文)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grants No.42330103,42271469);the Ningbo Science and Technology Bureau(Grant No.2022Z081).

摘　　要：The gap between the projected urban areas in the current trend(UAC)and those in the sustainable scenario(UAS)is a critical factor in understanding whether cities can fulfill the requirements of sustainable development.However,there is a paucity of knowledge on this cutting-edge topic.Given the extensive and rapid urbanization in the United States(U.S.)over the past two centuries,accurately measuring this gap between UAS and UAC is of critical importance for advancing future sustainable urban development,as well as having significant global implications.This study finds that although the 740 U.S.cities have a large UAC in 2100,these cities will encom pass a significant gap from UAC to UAS(approximately 165,000 km2),accounting for 30%UAC at that time.The study also reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the gap.The gap initially increases before reaching a inflection point in 2090,and it disparates greatly from−100%to 240%at city level.While cities in the Northwestern U.S.maintain UAC that exceeds UAS from 2020 to 2100,cities in other regions shift from UAC that exceeds UAS to UAC that falls short of UAS.Filling the gap without additional urban growth planning could lead to a reduction of crop production ranging from 0.3%to 3%and a 0.68%loss of biomass.Hence,dynamic and forward-looking urban planning is essential for addressing the challenges of sustainable development posed by urbanization,both within the U.S.and globally.

关 键 词：Urban areas in the current trend Urban areas in the sustainable scenario Urban gap dynamics Urban sustainability 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]