广西环北部湾内陆城市气候承载力初探——以玉林、崇左市为例  

Research on the Climate Carrying Capacity of InlandUrban Climate in the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi Province——Taking Yulin and Chongzuo as examples

作　　者：林宝亭 何洁琳[2] 李妍君 谢敏[2] 秦川 LIN Baoting;HE Jielin;LI Yanjun;XIE Min;QIN Chuan(Yulin Meteorological Office of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Yulin 537000,China;Climate Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区玉林市气象局,广西玉林537000 [2]广西壮族自治区气候中心,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2025年第1期35-42,共8页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB22080060);广西自然科学基金项目(2020GXNSFAA297121);广西气象科研指令性项目(桂气科2023ZL11)。

摘　　要：【目的】为研究广西北部湾城市群中的内陆边缘城市玉林、崇左的城市发展气候适应性。【方法】用气候自然影响因子、社会人为影响因子信息构建以逆向指数和正向指数为基础的评价体系,其中逆向指数包括气候天然容量、极端气候事件压力、城市气候压力,而正向指数则主要关注城市协调发展能力,对2000—2021年2个城市的气候承载力进行定量评价。【结果】22 a间,玉林气候承载力呈显著的波动上升趋势,崇左呈稳定发展态势,无明显变化,可见2个城市在发展进程中气候承载度仍有较大空间,但异常气候和极端事件会造成承载力的波动。年平均气温、年平均风速和年日照时数对气候天然容量影响较大;干旱、低温、暴雨是极端气候压力指数的关键因子;民用车辆拥有量和工业总产值的增加对城市气候压力的增长起重要作用;环境保护投资比重和科技经费支出比重的加重对城市协调发展能力增长起主导作用。【结论】在城市发展中需加强气候适应能力,同时促进绿色低碳发展。This paper aims at the climate adaptability of Yulin and Chongzuo during the city developing process.The two cities are inland marginal cities in the Beibu Gulf.The information of climate natural impact factors and social man-made impact factors are used in building the climate carrying capacity evaluation system that consists of one reverse index and one positive index.The reverse index includes natural climate capacity,extreme climate event pressure and urban climate pressure,while the positive index mainly focuses on the coordinated development ability of cities.The climate carrying capacity of the two cities from 2000 to 2021 is quantitatively evaluated.The results show that over the past 22 years,the climate carrying capacity of Yulin has shown a significant upward fluctuating trend,while the overall climate carrying capacity of Chongzuo has been in a stable development trend without obvious changes.This reflects that the two cities still have a lot of room relatively for climate carrying capacity along with the city development process,but abnormal climate and extreme weather events can cause fluctuations in the carrying capacity.The annual average temperature,annual average wind speed and annual sunshine hours have a greater impact on the natural capacity of climate.Drought,low temperature and heavy precipitation are the key factors of extreme climate pressure index.The ownership of civil vehicles and the total industrial output value play an important role in the growth of climate pressure on cities.The proportion of investment in environment protection and the proportion of scientific and technological expenditure play a leading role in the growth of coordinated development capacity of cities.In the future development of cities,it is necessary to strengthen climate adaptability and promote green and low-carbon development simultaneously.

关 键 词：气候承载力 定量评价 北部湾边缘城市 对比分析 

分 类 号：P413.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]