CMIP6全球气候模式对1980—2014年内蒙古降水的模拟评估  

Simulation and Evaluation of the 1980—2014 Precipitation in InnerMongolia by CMIP6 Global Climate Models

作　　者：皇彦 宋海清[2] 刘朋涛[2] HUANG Yan;SONG Haiqing;LIU Pengtao(Ulanqab Meteorological Office of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regin,Ulanqab 012000,China;Ecological and Agrometeorological Center of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区乌兰察布市气象局,内蒙古乌兰察布012000 [2]内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2025年第1期87-95,共9页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2021GG0415);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202423);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2023QN05021);国家重点研发计划重大自然灾害监测预警与防范专项(2018YFC1506606)。

摘　　要：【目的】降水是最重要的气候要素之一。为了评价CMIP6全球气候模式在内蒙古自治区降水的模拟性能。【方法】利用内蒙古1980—2014年115个国家气象站观测的月降水资料和CMIP6数据集中10个全球气候模式模拟降水资料,分析评价CMIP6全球气候模式模拟降水在内蒙古的精度。【结果】10个CMIP6全球气候模式模拟降水都能较好地模拟研究区域月降水的时空变化,与月观测降水的时间相关系数较高,在内蒙古全区、半湿润区、半干旱区的精度显著优于其在干旱区和极干旱区的精度,并且大部分模式模拟降水在夏季时段均表现出高估。空间分布对比表明,CMIP6各模式能够模拟出内蒙古全区多年平均降水东高西低的空间分布特征,对年均降水的高值区和低值区的模拟能力也较好,但高估了西部阿拉善高原的降水、低估了东部大兴安岭林区的降水。通过模式综合评价发现集合平均模拟降水表现最优。【结论】CMIP6全球气候模式模拟降水对内蒙古全区月降水的时空变化模拟能力较优,集合平均方法是提高CMIP6模式模拟降水精度的有效手段。Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables.In order to evaluate the simulation performance of CMIP6 global climate models for precipitation in Inner Mongolia,using monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the simulated precipitation data of 10 global climate models of CMIP6 datasets from 1980 to 2014,we analyze and evaluate the simulation accuracy of CMIP6 global climate models for precipitation in Inner Mongolia.The results show that the simulated precipitation of the 10 CMIP6 models can well reflect the spatial and temporal variation of the monthly precipitation in Inner Mongolia,and it has high temporal correlation coefficient with the monthly precipitation observation.The precision of the simulated precipitation in whole Inner Mongolia,and in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions are significantly better than that in the arid and extreme arid regions.The precipitation simulated by most models is overestimated in summer.The spatial distribution shows that the CMIP6 models can simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of the multi-year mean precipitation in Inner Mongolia,which is high in the east and low in the west.CMIP6 models also have better ability to simulate the high and low average annual precipitation,but they overestimate the precipitation over the Alashan Plateau in the west and underestimate the precipitation in the forest region in the Greater Khingan Mountains in the east of Inner Mongolia.Through the comprehensive evaluation of the CMIP6 models,it is found that the ensemble mean simulated precipitation performs best over Inner Mongolia and its climatic subregions.Therefore,the CMIP6 global climate models have better abilities to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of monthly precipitation in Inner Mongolia,and the ensemble mean method is an effective means to improve the accuracy of precipitation simulation by CMIP6 models.

关 键 词：CMIP6 降水 内蒙古 评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]