短时数据驱动的新能源电力系统频率稳定在线预测  

Online prediction of new energy power system frequency stability by short-term data-driven

作　　者：王清宇 王桢祎 WANG Qingyu;WANG Zhenyi(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China;Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Heilongjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林吉林132012 [2]国网黑龙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《电气应用》2025年第3期47-55,共9页Electrotechnical Application

摘　　要：低惯量系统在扰动下的频率响应轨迹的最低点可以作为频率安全状态评估的重要指标。因此,提出了一种基于短时数据驱动的频率最低点的在线预测方法。首先,揭示了频率响应轨迹最低点特征的产生原因,并给出相应的表征方法。然后,通过使用广义频率响应模型推导出频率最低点的时域解析表达式。对于模型中较难获得的频率控制参数,以发电机组频率偏差量为输入,有功出力为输出,利用基于最小二乘法的参数识别来获取。由于该方法利用扰动后的初始频率轨迹来预测频率最低点,因此系统自身的响应数据能够提高预测结果的准确性。在改进的39节点系统中对所提频率轨迹最低点预测方法的有效性进行了验证,通过与基于模型驱动的预测方法的计算结果进行对比,进一步证明了该方法的实用性。It is particularly important to obtain the nadir point of the frequency response trajectory of a low-inertia system under disturbance,as it can serve as a crucial indicator for frequency security state assessment.Therefore,this paper proposes an online prediction method for the frequency nadir point based on short-term data-driven approaches.First,the paper reveals the causes of the frequency response trajectory nadir point’s characteristics and its representation methods.Then,using a generalized frequency response model,the time-domain analytical expression for the frequency nadir point is derived.For the frequency control parameters in the model that are difficult to obtain,the generator frequency deviation is used as the input and the active power output as the output,with parameter identification based on least squares method to acquire the values.Since this method uses the initial frequency trajectory after disturbance to predict the frequency nadir point,the system’s own response data can enhance the accuracy of the prediction results.The effectiveness of the proposed frequency nadir point prediction method is verified using an improved New England 39-bus system.By comparing the results with those from a model-driven prediction method,the practical applicability of this approach is further demonstrated.

关 键 词：低惯量电力系统 频率稳定 频率最低点 数据驱动 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]