气候变化和人类活动对南京主城区植被覆盖变化的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover Changes in Core Area of Nanjing City

作　　者：刘鸣 李志朋 李艳 Liu Ming;Li Zhipeng;Li Yan(College of Architecture,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学建筑学院,南京211816

出　　处：《中国城市林业》2025年第1期11-17,共7页Journal of Chinese Urban Forestry

基　　金：高密度人居环境生态与节能教育部重点实验室开放课题(20220111);南京市绿化园林局专项资金(JSCXFW2022-06-1)。

摘　　要：[目的]探讨近20年快速城市化进程中,气候变化与人类活动对南京主城区植被覆盖的影响及各自贡献率的大小,为城市植被科学规划和管理提供参考依据。[方法]以南京主城区为研究范围,构建气候因子和归一化植被指数(NDVI)之间的线性回归模型以量化近20年(2000-2020年)气候变化对NDVI的影响,采用残差分析计算人类活动的影响,通过趋势分析计算各自贡献率,以及利用相关性分析确定主要影响因子。[结果]南京主城区植被覆盖变化受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,但人类活动的平均贡献率(65.4%)高于气候变化(34.6%),其中,人类活动以正向效应为主,建成区绿地覆盖率和人均公共绿地面积是最主要的正向驱动因子,而城区人口和市区GDP是主要的负向驱动因子;气候变化以负向效应为主,温度比降水与植被的相关性更高,极端气候事件具有明显负向作用。[结论]气候变化和人类活动共同影响南京主城区植被覆盖,人类活动的作用与贡献高于气候变化。因此,气候变化对城市植被的负面影响不容忽视;城市更新和植被恢复等人类活动对城市绿地管理措施的制定应重视建成区绿地覆盖率和人均公共绿地面积等绿化指标的提升。[Objective]This study is to discuss the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover in the core area of Nanjing City during the rapid urbanization process in the past 20 years,and determine their respective contribution rates,which would provide references for the science-based planning and management of urban vegetation.[Method]A linear regression model between climatic factors and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)is constructed to quantify the impact of climate change on NDVI in the past 20 years(2000-2020)in the core area of Nanjing.The impact of human activities is calculated by residual analysis.The respective contribution rates are calculated by the trend analysis,and the main influencing factors are determined by the correlation analysis.[Result]The vegetation cover change in the core area of Nanjing is jointly affected by climate change and human activities,but the average contribution rate of human activities(65.4%)is higher than that of climate change(34.6%).Human activities have positive effects,and the green coverage rate of built-up areas and per capita public green space area are the main positive driving factors,while urban population and urban GDP are the main negative driving factors.Climate change has a negative effect.Temperature is more correlated with vegetation than precipitation,and extreme climate events have a significant negative role.[Conclusion]Climate change and human activities impact the vegetation cover in the core area of Nanjing,while human activities have a higher effect and contribution than climate change.Hence,the negative effect of climate change on urban vegetation cannot be ignored.The formulation of urban green space management measures for human activities such as urban renewal and vegetation restoration should focus on improving greening indicators such as green coverage rate in built-up areas and per capita public green space area.

关 键 词：城市扩张 城市更新 城市绿地 NDVI 

分 类 号：TU9[建筑科学]