昆明市生态系统服务多情景模拟评估--基于GMOP-PLUS模型分析  

Multi-Scenario Modeling Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Kunming Based on GMOP-PLUS Model

作　　者：刘玥含 金爱博 王向荣[1] Liu Yuehan;Jin Aibo;Wang Xiangrong(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国城市林业》2025年第1期143-152,共10页Journal of Chinese Urban Forestry

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3800203)。

摘　　要：[目的]定量分析土地利用变化对生态功能的影响,为合理开发土地资源、协调经济发展与生态保护提供科学参考。[方法]基于2000-2020年昆明市土地利用数据,通过GMOP-PLUS模型预测2030年不同情景下的土地利用,并采用InVEST模型评估生态系统服务变化。[结果]1)2000-2020年昆明市建设用地快速扩张,耕地和草地持续减少,生态系统服务总体呈下降趋势,且南北地区存在差异。2)ND情景下产水量和土壤保持量上升,碳储量及生境质量下降;EP情景林地面积占比最大,生态系统服务质量整体显著提升;ED情景与之相反;SD情景建设用地与林地同步扩张,兼顾生态保护与经济发展,是未来城市规划的优选方向。3)建设用地扩张对生态系统服务产生负面影响,而林地扩展有助于提升碳储量和生境质量。4)碳储量、土壤保持和生境质量呈协同关系,产水量与碳储量和生境质量呈权衡关系。[结论]快速城市化背景下,昆明市2000-2020年土地利用变化显著,生态系统服务质量下降。建设用地与林地的发展变化对于生态系统服务具有重要影响。未来土地利用规划需在生态保护与经济发展之间寻求平衡,实现土地利用与生态服务的协调发展,如同步提升林地保护、生态系统服务,协调建设用地与林地发展速度等。[Objective]The study is to quantitatively analyze the impact of land use changes on ecological functions,and provide scientific references for the rational development of land resources and the coordination between economic development and ecological protection.[Method]Based on land use data of Kunming City from 2000 to 2020,the study employs the GMOP-PLUS model to predict land use scenarios for 2030 and uses the InVEST model to evaluate changes in ecosystem services.[Result]1)The rapid expansion of construction land and the reduction of farmland and grassland in Kunming from 2000 to 2020 result in an overall decline in ecosystem services,which also presents significant regional differences between the north and the south;2)Under the ND scenario,the water yield and the soil retention increase,while the carbon storage and the habitat quality decrease.The EP scenario,has the largest proportion of forest land and significantly improved ecosystem service quality,whereas the ED scenario displays the opposite trend.In the SD scenario,there is a simultaneous expansion of construction land and forest land,showcasing a balance between ecological protection and economic development,which makes it the preferred direction for future urban planning;3)Expansion of construction land negatively impacts ecosystem services,while forest land expansion enhances carbon storage and habitat quality;and 4)Carbon storage,soil retention,and habitat quality exhibit synergistic relationships,whereas water yield shows trade-offs with carbon storage and habitat quality.[Conclusion]Under the background of rapid urbanization,land use changes in Kunming from 2000 to 2020 were significant,and the quality of ecosystem services declined.The development of construction land and forest land has an important impact on ecosystem services,and future land use planning needs to seek a balance between ecological protection and economic development to realize the coordinated development of land use and ecological services,such as synchronizing the improveme

关 键 词：土地利用变化 生态系统服务 GMOP-PLUS模型 多情景模拟 

分 类 号：F30[经济管理—产业经济]