全球视野下的人口负增长  

Negative Population Growth from a Global Perspective

作　　者：陈卫[1,2] 董隽含 CHEN Wei;DONG Jun-han(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第2期29-41,共13页Northwest Population Journal

摘　　要：人口负增长和人口老龄化将成为21世纪世界各国家或地区面临的共同挑战。不同国家或地区的生育转变进程的差异导致其人口负增长、自然负增长和老龄化的发展速度不同。文章利用联合国《世界人口展望(2024)》数据,使用同时期和同原点对比方法,考察不同国家的生育转变、人口负增长和人口老龄化的规律性和差异性。欧洲国家生育转变的起始时间较早,人口负增长、自然负增长和老龄化进程缓慢,而亚洲国家和地区完成生育转变的时间较短,在很大程度上缩短了低生育水平与自然负增长现象的时滞,加速了负增长和老龄化进程的推进,其中东亚国家的负增长和老龄化速度最快,程度也最深。中国完成生育转变的速度更快,生育水平在达到更替水平至进入自然负增长之间的时间约是英国、法国等国家的一半。中国以极低的生育水平进入人口自然负增长,低于欧洲国家启动自然负增长的生育水平,人口自然负增长的发展进程也比欧洲国家快得多。中国将面临迅猛的负增长和老龄化趋势,到21世纪80年代可能成为负增长程度最深和老龄化程度最为严重的国家。Negative population growth and population ageing have become common challenges for all countries or re-gions in the 21st century.Differences in the process of fertility transition in different countries or regions lead to the de-velopment of negative population growth,natural negative population growth and ageing at different speeds.Using the da-ta from World Population Prospects 2024,this study investigated the regularity and variability of the fertility transition,negative population growth and population ageing in different countries by identical period comparison and identical ori-gin point model.The fertility transition in European countries started earlier,and negative population,natural negative population growth and population ageing process were slow,while Asian countries and regions completed the fertility transition in a shorter time,which largely shortened the time lag between the low fertility and natural negative growth,and accelerated the negative growth and ageing process especially in east Asian countries.China completed the fertility transition more rapidly with fertility rate reaching replacement level and occurring natural negative growth in about half the time of countries such as the United Kingdom and France.And China occurred natural negative population growth at a very low fertility rate,which is lower than that of European countries,and the process of natural negative population growth in China is much faster than that of European countries.China may become the country with the deepest negative population growth and the most severe ageing under rapid negative growth and ageing trends by the 2080s.

关 键 词：人口负增长 人口自然负增长 人口老龄化 生育转变 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]