离散中的弥合:人口流动对离婚风险的影响  

Bridging the Gap in Separation:The Impact of Population Mobility on the Risk of Divorce

作　　者：郝立 王志章[2] HAO Li;WANG Zhi-zhang(School of Economics,Southwest University of Political Science and Law,Chongqing,401120,China;School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing,400515,China)

机构地区：[1]西南政法大学经济学院,重庆401120 [2]西南大学管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第2期88-103,共16页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“知识型青年女性生育意愿及生育支持政策体系构建研究”(批准号:23CSH065);重庆市教委人文社科研究项目“重庆市育龄家庭生育意愿、生育决策机制及生育支持政策体系构建研究”(批准号:23SKGH032);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究基地项目“数字普惠金融驱动脱贫地区产业高质量发展的模式创新研究”(批准号:24SKJD025)。

摘　　要：基于中国家庭追踪调查CFPS2010年的数据,检验了人口流动对离婚的影响,研究发现:人口流动会显著提高离婚风险。进一步检验了经济、家庭以及社会交往等因素的调节作用,发现经济收入水平的提高可以在一定程度上补偿流动对婚姻稳定性造成的负面结果,对婚姻会起到一定的保护作用。家庭中子女数量、家庭观念等因素也可以抑制人口流动对婚姻稳定性的负向影响。具体说来,随着家庭中子女数量的增加以及家庭观念的增强,流动对离婚风险的影响会被削弱。但社会交往因素则会强化流动对婚姻解体的正向影响,即随着社会交往的增加,人口流动会显著提高离婚风险。流动对离婚的影响还存在着性别、城乡、社会阶层以及世代差异,也即流动会显著提高女性、非农户籍、社会阶层较低以及较为年轻世代群体的离婚风险,而该效应对男性、农业户籍、社会阶层较高以及出生在1960年之前的老一辈群体并不显著。可见,流动对婚姻的影响包含着社会变迁过程中的“进步的力量”和“破坏的力量”的综合影响。为了使人口迁移流动进一步成为助推高质量发展和中国式现代化的重要力量,一方面要支持人口在城市中的自由选择和个体发展,另一方面要帮助流动人口适应迁移过程对个体家庭带来的冲击和结构性变化,减少迁移对于家庭福利和家庭发展的破坏作用。This paper examines the impact of population mobility on divorce based on data from the China Family Panel Survey(CFPS)2010,and the study has the following findings.(1)Mobility can significantly increase the risk of divorce.(2)This paper further examines the moderating effects of economic,family,and social interaction factors,and finds that an increase in economic income level can compensate to some extent for the negative effects of mobility experience on marital stability,and will have a protective effect on migrant marriage.Family factors such as the num-ber of children and family attitudes can also dampen the positive effect of mobility experiences on the risk of divorce.Specifically,the positive effect of the mobility experience on divorce risk is weakened as the number of children in-creases and as family values increase.Social interaction factors,however,reinforce the effect of population mobility on marital dissolution.As social interactions increase,population mobility significantly increases the risk of divorce.(3)There are gender,urban-rural,social class,and generational differences in the effect of population mobility on di-vorce.Population mobility significantly increases the risk of divorce for females,non-agricultural households,lower social class,and younger generations,while the effect is not significant for males,agricultural households,higher so-cial class,and older generations,especially for those born before 1960.It can be seen that the impact of mobility on marriage involves a combination of“progressive forces”and“destructive forces”in the process of social change.In or-der to make population mobility an important force for high-quality development and Chinese path to modernization,it is necessary,on the one hand,to support the free choice and individual development of the population in the cities,and on the other hand,to help the migrant population to adapt to the shocks and structural changes brought about by the process of mobility on individual families,so as to minimize the dest

关 键 词：人口流动 离婚 家庭 异质性 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理] C922[社会学]