人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Population Aging on the Development of New-quality Productive Forces

作　　者：马丽 乔国娇 才让加[2] MA Li;QIAO Guo-jiao;CAI Rang-jia(School of Economics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou Gansu 730020,China;School of Economics,Northwest University for Nationalities,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学经济学院,兰州730020 [2]西北民族大学经济学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《西北人口》2025年第2期113-126,共14页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目“甘肃新能源产业延链、补链、强链研究”(项目编号:2024YB075)。

摘　　要：中国人口负增长时代下,人口增长模式和结构的转变,对新质生产力发展提出了巨大挑战。探究如何在适应人口结构新变化的基础上加快发展新质生产力,有效遏制人口结构转变对新质生产力产生的不利影响,既关系到新质生产力的培育,更关系到经济高质量增长目标的顺利实现。清晰认识人口老龄化与新质生产力的关系,为提前干预人口老龄化的政策出台而做好准备。文章基于2012~2022年省际面板数据,在测算省级新质生产力发展水平的基础上,考察了人口老龄化对新质生产力的影响及作用机制。研究发现:第一,人口老龄化对新质生产力的发展产生了负向影响,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。第二,人力资本和劳动生产率是人口老龄化对新质生产力发挥正向影响的重要传导机制。第三,人口老龄化对新质生产力的抑制作用在市场化指数较高的地区更加显著;短期内,二孩政策的实施并未有效缓解人口老龄化对新质生产力的负向影响。第四,人口老龄化对新质生产力的影响存在技术进步门槛,跨过门槛值后,技术进步将有效激活人口老龄化对新质生产力的积极作用。为此,应采取优化人力资本质量、推动区域协调发展和加强福利保障等措施,以助推新质生产力的发展。In the context of China's negative population growth,the transformation of demographic patterns and struc-tures presents significant challenges to the development of new-quality productive forces.Addressing these challenges requires exploring strategies to accelerate the development of new-quality productive forces while adapting to demo-graphic changes.Effectively mitigating the adverse impacts of demographic shifts on new-quality productive forces is crucial,as it not only pertains to the cultivation of new-quality productive forces but also directly affects the achieve-ment of high-quality economic growth objectives.A clear understanding of the relationship between population aging and new-quality productive forces is essential for formulating proactive policy interventions.Based on inter-provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022,this study examines the impact of population aging on new-quality productive forces and its underlying mechanisms,after measuring the development level of new-quality productive forces at the provincial level.The findings reveal several key insights:First,population aging exerts a negative impact on the development of new-quality productive forces,a conclusion that remains robust after a series of rigorous tests.Second,human capital and labor productivity serve as crucial transmission mechanisms through which population aging positively influences new-quality productive forces.Third,the inhibitory effect of population aging on new-quality productive forces is more pronounced in regions with higher marketization indices;in the short term,the implementation of the two-child policy has not effectively alleviated the negative impact of population aging on new-quality productive forces.Fourth,the impact of population aging on new-quality productive forces exhibits a technological progress threshold effect,beyond this threshold,technological progress can effectively activate the positive role of population aging in developing new-quality productive forces.In light of these findings,policy int

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人力资本 劳动生产率 技术进步 新质生产力 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F719[政治法律—中外政治制度]