微波辐射资料同化对华北“23·7”极端暴雨预报影响  

Impact of Assimilating Microwave Radiance Data on Forecast of "23·7" Extreme Rainstorm in North China

作　　者：钟霈雯 陈耀登[1] 谢彦辉 陈敏 范水勇 李娟[3] Zhong Peiwen;Chen Yaodeng;Xie Yanhui;Chen Min;Fan Shuiyong;Li Juan(Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Institute of Urban Meteorology,CMA,Beijing 100089;CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]北京城市气象研究院,北京100089 [3]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2025年第2期142-154,共13页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2442601,U2442218,42005119);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3001003)。

摘　　要：为考察中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)同化多源极轨卫星微波辐射资料在极端暴雨事件预报中的应用能力及效果,针对晨昏、上午和下午3种轨道卫星微波温度探测通道辐射资料,开展质量控制、偏差订正及其统计特征分析,评估多源极轨卫星微波辐射资料同化应用对华北“23·7”极端暴雨事件的预报影响。结果表明:多源微波温度探测通道辐射资料同化有效改善模式初始场温度;降低模式预报场的温度、湿度和风场误差;提高降水预报准确性,尤其改善了24 h时效特大暴雨量级(不低于250 mm)降水预报,临界成功指数评分改进率达14%。诊断分析表明:同化多源极轨卫星微波温度探测通道辐射资料后,模式对强降水区域的动力、热力、水汽条件模拟更强且更有利于强对流发展,有效提高了对此次暴雨过程的降水预报能力。CMA-MESO model is utilized to investigate the impact of assimilating multi-source polar-orbiting satellite microwave radiance data on forecast of"23.7"severe rainstorm event in North China.This event is primarily associated the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri(2305)and is influenced by weather systems,including the subtropical high and Typhoon Khanun(2306).The study utilizes CMA-MESO assimilation system to assimilate radiance data from microwave temperature sounding channels,including ATMS on NOAA-20 and SNPP,AMSU-A on Metop-C,MWTS-2 on FY-3D,and MWTS-3 on FY-3E.The process of preparing satellite microwave radiance data for assimilation involves several steps,including cloud detection,quality control,and bias correction.The cloud detection algorithm utilizes the absolute value of observation minus background(OMB)for 52.8 GHz channel to identify and exclude cloudy observations.Bias correction is implemented using the static bias correction method developed by Harris and Kelly,which addresses both scan-dependent bias and air mass bias.Two experiments are conducted:A control experiment(CTRL),which utilizes only conventional observations(surface,radiosonde,and aircraft observations),and a multi-source microwave temperature sounding channel data assimilation experiment(MTS),which assimilates both conventional observations and the aforementioned satellite data.Results demonstrate that the accuracy of the model's initial conditions is improved through the assimilation of radiance data from multiple microwave temperature sounding channels.Errors in initial temperature fields are minimized,and the representation of weather systems is enhanced through data assimilation.MTS experiment demonstrates enhanced precision in temperature,humidity,and wind forecasts,particularly in the lower and middle troposphere.This improvement subsequently leads to better skills in predicting precipitation.In particular,MTS experiment demonstrates enhancements in 24 h accumulated precipitation forecasts,particularly for heavy rainfall events.There i

关 键 词：多源极轨卫星 微波辐射资料同化 CMA-MESO模式 暴雨预报 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]