基于气候资源的北江光水发电潜力匹配性评价  

Compatibility Evaluation of Photovoltaic and Hydroelectric Power Generation Potential in the Beijiang River Basin Based on Climate Resources

作　　者：任义方 赵艳霞 陈思宁[3] 孙擎[3] 李牧原 张祎 刘莉[3] Ren Yifang;Zhao Yanxia;Chen Sining;Sun Qing;Li Muyuan;Zhang Yi;Liu Li(Jiangsu Climate Center,Nanjing 210008;Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]江苏省气候中心,南京210008 [2]复旦大学大气科学研究院,上海200438 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2025年第2期164-177,共14页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象服务协会气象科技创新平台项目(CMSA2024MB014);气象风险与保险联合开放实验室开放基金项目(2024F006);中国气象局“金融气象”重点创新团队项目(2024Z002)。

摘　　要：为实现多能耦合发电系统的优化利用,以北江流域为例,从光伏、水力发电生产源头气候资源供给能力出发,利用1984—2023年气象资料、2003—2017年径流量、高程、土地利用、土壤类型等,结合水文和发电潜力模型,测算归一化潜在发电量,从时空维度构建光水耦合发电不平衡性、波动性、差异性、协同性和互补性指数,采用自组织映射(SOM)聚类方法,开展流域级光水发电潜能气候资源评价、匹配性分析和区划评估。结果表明:空间上,光、水资源分别呈中间高两边低和北低南高的特征,不平衡性指数为正值且呈增(减)态、负值且呈增(减)态的情景分别位于流域东(西)部、干流下(中)游;时间上,光水资源呈单峰型,耦合潜在发电量年内互补,其波动性、差异性显著小于独立系统,光水发电潜力协同性、互补性分布相近与波动性呈反态势。资源足、中匹配区位于流域中部,此消彼长、平稳性好,适宜规划开发;资源足、低匹配区位于流域东南部,不平稳性、波动性强,需依靠保险产品转移风险。With the continuous expansion of green energy development,multi-energy coupled power generation systems have effectively improved resource utilization,but still face challenges related to instability and unpredictability of grid-connected power generation.In order to achieve optimal utilization of a multi-energy coupled power generation system,it is crucial to understand the capacity of climate resources and their alignment with the power production sources.Taking Beijiang in Guangdong as an example,meteorological data from 1984 to 2023,runoff data from 2003 to 2017,as well as data such as elevation,land use and soil types,combined with photovoltaic,hydrological,and hydroelectric power generation potential models are used to calculate the normalized hydroelectric and photovoltaic potential power generation.From perspectives of spatial and temporal dimensions,and considering imbalances,fluctuations,differences,synergies,and complementarity of water-solar coupling power generation,various indices are constructed.Additionally,the self-organizing map(SOM)clustering method is employed.The evaluation of climate resources,matching analysis,and zoning assessment for the potential for water-solar power generation are conducted in the Beijiang River Basin.Results indicate that,spatially,total solar radiation and runoff display a distribution pattern characterized by high in the middle and low on both sides and low in the north and high in the south,respectively.The normalized power generation potential spatial occupancy and imbalance variation trends identified by the imbalance index are categorized into 4 scenarios that are photovoltaic greater than hydroelectric with an increasing trend,photovoltaic greater than hydroelectric with a decreasing trend,photovoltaic less than hydroelectric with an increasing trend,and photovoltaic less than hydroelectric with a decreasing trend,are concentrated in the eastern and western parts of the Basin,as well as in the downstream and middle reaches of Beijiang.In terms of time,climate r

关 键 词：北江流域 光水 匹配性 评价 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]